Opinion: Projecting the effects of environmental change on Antarctic seals
Opinion: Projecting the effects of environmental change on Antarctic seals
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观点：预测环境变化对南极海豹的影响
DOI：
10.1017/s0954102008001351
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发表时间：
2008
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
D. Ainley
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Siniff;R. Garrott;J. Rotella;W. Fraser;D. Ainley
摘要我们考虑南极海豹如何应对气候变化，认识到人类活动对食物网的改变会影响这些反应。所考虑的物种包括冰专性螃蟹（Lobodon carcinophaga），Weddell（Leptonychotes weddellii），Ross（Ommataphoca rossii）和豹（Hydrurga leptonyx）海豹，以及耐冰的南极毛皮海豹（Arctocephalus gazella）和南部象海豹（Mirounga leonina）。分析的数据来自于对麦克默多海峡威德尔海豹（1997-2006年）和南极半岛亚瑟港威德尔海豹、毛皮海豹和象海豹（1974-2005年）的长期普查。在考虑了它们对最近环境特征变化的反应，以及对它们栖息地的预测和当前变化之后，我们的结论是：1）螃蟹和威德尔海豹的分布和丰度将受到年度海冰范围、持续性和类型变化的负面影响，2）罗斯海豹和豹海豹将受到浮冰特征变化的负面影响最小，尽管如此，就像crabeater和Weddell的情况一样，种群规模和分布可能会通过食物网动态的变化而改变，3）南部大象和海狗的反应方式与浮冰物种相反，但也可能会受到气候以外因素导致的食物资源变化的最直接影响。
Abstract We consider how Antarctic seals may respond to changes in climate, realizing that anthropogenic alteration of food webs will influence these responses. The species considered include the ice-obligate - crabeater (Lobodon carcinophaga), Weddell (Leptonychotes weddellii), Ross (Ommataphoca rossii) and leopard (Hydrurga leptonyx) seal - and the ice-tolerant Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella) and southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina). The data analysed are from long-term censuses of Weddell seals in McMurdo Sound (1997–2006), and of Weddell, fur and elephant seals at Arthur Harbour, Antarctic Peninsula (1974–2005). After considering their responses to recent changes in environmental features, as well as projected and current changes to their habitat our conclusions are that the distribution and abundance of 1) crabeater and Weddell seals will be negatively affected by changes in the extent, persistence and type of annual sea ice, 2) Ross and leopard seal will be the least negatively influenced by changes in pack ice characteristics, although, as may be the case for crabeater and Weddell, population size and distribution may be altered through changes in food web dynamics, and 3) southern elephant and fur seals will respond in ways opposite to the pack ice species, but could also be influenced most immediately by changes in their food resources due to factors other than climate.