Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources, crop production and land degradation in a semi-arid river basin
Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources, crop production and land degradation in a semi-arid river basin
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DOI：
10.2166/nh.2015.143
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发表时间：
2015-12
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
M. Kappas;Seyed Zeynalabedin Hosseini
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Kappas;Seyed Zeynalabedin Hosseini
伊朗的半干旱地区经历了严重的水资源压力，由于自然（例如，干旱）和人为（例如，各部门的水资源枯竭）因素。评估气候变化对水资源和作物生产的影响，可大大有助于改善水资源管理，从而防止这一地区的土地退化。Razan-Ghahavand流域的水文模型被用作伊朗半干旱地区的代表性案例研究。根据政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）排放预测第四次评估报告中的3种情景，利用4个全球环流模式（GCMs）生成了21世纪中期的未来气候情景。根据整个流域10个气候站的观测数据，对GCM进行了降尺度处理。结果表明，从流域整体来看，年平均降水量可能减少，而最高气温可能增加。这两个气候变量的变化导致作为该地区主要供水来源的地下水补给量大幅减少。此外，土壤含水量下降，导致雨养地区作物产量下降。事实上，南部干旱和北部洪水的风险很高。
The semi-arid regions of Iran have experienced severe water resources stress due to natural (e.g., drought) and anthropogenic (e.g., depletion of water in various sectors) factors. Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources and crop production could significantly help toward better water management and hence prevention of land degradation in this area. A hydrological model of the Razan–Ghahavand basin was used as a representative case study of a semi-arid region of Iran. Future climate scenarios in the mid-21st century were generated from four global circulation models (GCMs) with three scenarios under the fourth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission projections. The GCMs have been downscaled based on observed data at 10 climate stations across the basin. The results showed that for the basin as a whole, the mean annual precipitation is likely to decrease while the maximum temperature increases. The changes in these two climate variables resulted in substantial reduction in groundwater recharge as the main source of water supply in this area. Furthermore, soil water content was decreased which resulted in the reduction of crop yield in rain-fed areas. Indeed, the risk of drought in the south and flooding in the north was high.