A National Accounting Framework for the Petroleum Cycle: A Case Study of China
A National Accounting Framework for the Petroleum Cycle: A Case Study of China
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DOI：
10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2016.05.009
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发表时间：
2016-10
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
L. Xiaojie;L. Litao;Cheng Shengkui;Shen Lei;Lu Chunxia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Xiaojie;L. Litao;Cheng Shengkui;Shen Lei;Lu Chunxia
翻译后摘要：在气候变化和社会经济发展的世界，石油是紧密交织和相互依存的战略资源。追踪石油资源流动的演变是了解石油供应和需求的基础，也可以作为评估石油产品CO2排放的基础。本文提出了一个将石油资源流动划分为四个阶段、三个流程、三个库和两个过程的石油产品流动核算框架，并总结了石油资源流动的计量和分析方法。本文以中国为例进行实证研究，发现：①中国石油生产、消费和进口在过去20年中显著增长，需求增长与供给有限的结合，使中国迫切需要在全球范围内实现石油来源多元化，以确保中国的石油安全。②最终消费占石油产品使用量的绝大部分，应特别注意石油炼制过程中的损耗。③除原油外，石油产品在各部门间的流动发生了很大变化。特别是，石油产品流向运输和居民消费的趋势显著上升，而流向工业的趋势则在下降。CO2排放数据显示，CO2排放量从1993年的4.56亿吨迅速增加到2013年的1.517亿吨。此前，二氧化碳排放量最大的三个部门是工业部门、包括运输、储存和邮政部门在内的运输部门以及火电部门。目前，最大的排放者是运输部门、工业部门和居民消费部门。最后，系统界限划分不清，数据库和模型不完整，限制了对石油资源非能源用途的工业流动的研究。
Abstract: In a world of climate change and socio-economic development, oil is the strategic resource that is closely intertwined and interdependent. Tracing the evolution of petroleum resources flow is fundamental to understanding petroleum supply and demand, and can also serve as the basis for assessing CO2 emissions from petroleum products. This paper aims to provide a petroleum products flow accounting framework that divides petroleum flow into four phases, three flows, three libraries, and two processes, and summarizes the approach to measure and analyze petroleum resources flows. It takes China as an example for empirical research, and finds that: ① China's petroleum production, consumption and import have significantly increased over the past two decades, and the combination of increasing demand and limited supply have created an urgent need for China to diversify its petroleum sources globally to ensure its oil security. ② Final consumption accounts for the use of most petroleum products and special attention should be paid to the losses in the petroleum refining process. ③ With the exception of crude oil, petroleum product flows among various sectors has changed greatly. Particularly, the flow of petroleum products into transport and residential consumption has trended upward significantly, whereas the flow to industry is trending downward. ④ CO2 emission data shows that CO2 emission amounts increased rapidly from 456Mt in 1993 to 1517Mt in 2013. Previously, the top three CO2 emitters were the industrial sector, the transport sector including the transport, storage and post segments, and the thermal power sector. Currently, the largest emitters are the transport sector, the industrial sector and the residential consumption sector. Finally, poorly demarcated system boundaries and incomplete databases and models constrain research on industry flows of petroleum resources for non-energy use.