Physically-based landfalling tropical cyclone scenarios in support of risk assessment
Physically-based landfalling tropical cyclone scenarios in support of risk assessment
复制标题
支持风险评估的基于物理的热带气旋登陆情景
DOI：
10.1016/j.wace.2019.100229
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Peter Chan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Bruyère;J. Done;A. Jaye;G. Holland;B. Buckley;D. Henderson;M. Leplastrier;Peter Chan
在热带气旋易发地区，人口和财产价值正在增加，从而推高了热带气旋影响后的维修和重置成本。气候变化对热带气旋和海平面的影响只会加剧这些上升。例如，2017年澳大利亚的强热带气旋黛比是自1974年热带气旋特蕾西以来在澳大利亚登陆的最具破坏性的气旋之一。气旋黛比的主要影响是由于持续时间极短的强烈风力驱动的降雨和广泛的大洪水，两者都与异常温暖的海面温度有关。研究气候变化对热带气旋的影响是有限的，缺乏良好的观测历史事件。传统的灾害风险评估方法主要是基于统计模型，只处理单一的气象灾害，或使用简化的参数化关系时，包括一个以上的现象是有限的。在这里，我们探索的价值动力学模型创建有针对性的，详细的，物理上合理的多灾害热带气旋的情况下，通过开发一个建模系统，i）保持高度的模拟控制，ii）是全球适用的，iii）是响应气候变率和变化。模拟系统的应用热力学气候变化的情况下发现，热带气旋渗透到更远的内陆与显着扩大的强降雨区，导致显着更大的地区受到破坏性和破坏性的风速和降雨总量能够产生闪光和河流洪水。
Populations and property values are increasing in tropical cyclone prone regions, driving up repair and replacement costs following a tropical cyclone impact. Climate change influences on tropical cyclones and sea levels will only exacerbate these rises. For example, Australia's Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie in 2017 was one of the most destructive cyclones to make landfall in Australia since Tropical Cyclone Tracy in 1974. The primary impacts of Cyclone Debbie were due to extreme short duration intense wind driven rainfall and widespread major flooding, both linked to uncharacteristically warm sea surface temperatures. Studying the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones is limited by the lack of well observed historical events. Traditional hazard risk assessment approaches are limited since they are primarily based on statistical models which only deal with single meteorological hazards, or use simplified parameterized relationships when more than one phenomenon is included. Here we explore the value of dynamical models for creating targeted, detailed, and physically plausible multi-hazard tropical cyclone scenarios, through the development of a modeling system that i) retains a high degree of simulation control, ii) is globally applicable, and iii) is responsive to climate variability and change. Application of the modeling system to a thermodynamic climate change scenario finds that the tropical cyclone penetrates much further inland with a marked expansion of the heavy rainfall area, resulting in significantly larger areas subjected to damaging and destructive wind speeds and rainfall totals capable of producing flash and riverine flooding.
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Chen, F;Dudhia, J
通讯作者：
Dudhia, J