Assessing the vulnerability of Indian mustard to climate change
Assessing the vulnerability of Indian mustard to climate change
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agee.2010.05.010
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发表时间：
2010-08-15
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Chander, S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Boomiraj, K.;Chakrabarti, B.;Chander, S.
油菜-芥菜(Brassica spp.)是世界上主要的油料作物群体，印度是仅次于中国的第二大种植国。尽管自20世纪60年代以来，油籽产量大幅增加，但由于人口增加和收入增加，未来对油籽产量的需求可能会上升。芥菜对气候变量非常敏感，因此气候可能会对其产量产生重大影响。与谷物相比，评估气候变化对油籽作物影响的研究非常有限。本文介绍了一项模拟研究的结果，以评估气候变化对印度芥菜(Brassica Jiea)在热带农业环境中的影响。InfoCrop是一个通用的动态作物模型，提供了对天气、品种、病虫害和土壤管理措施对作物生长和产量的影响，以及对好氧、厌氧条件下土壤氮和有机碳动态以及温室气体排放的影响的综合评估。经过验证的模型(InfoCrop-Mimard)对芥菜的物候、作物生长和产量进行了合理的预测。人们发现，这种作物对二氧化碳(CO2)和温度的变化很敏感。未来气候变化情景分析表明，在灌溉和降雨条件下，芥菜产量都可能减少。然而，这些减少量在印度不同的芥菜产区存在空间差异。在灌溉和降雨条件下，印度东部的减产幅度较大(67%和57%)，其次是印度中部(48%和14%)和印度北部(40.3%和21.4%)。这是由于预计2080年该国东部地区的最大气温上升。在印度北部，由于作物生长期该地区普遍较低的气温，灌溉芥菜的减产相对较小。但研究发现，降雨作物更容易受到印度北部气候变化的影响，因为预计未来降雨量将减少。采取晚播和种植长效品种等适应措施，将有助于防止全国不同地区灌溉芥菜的产量损失。(C)2010爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
Rapeseed-mustard (Brassica spp.) is a major group of oilseed crop in the world with India being the second largest cultivator after China. Although there has been a significant increase in oilseed production since 1960s, the demand for oilseeds production in the future is likely to go up due to population increase and their income. Mustard is much sensitive to climatic variables and hence climate could have significant effect on its production. There are very limited studies to assess the impact of climate change on oilseed crops as compared to cereals. This paper presents results of a simulation study to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on Indian mustard (Brassica juncea) in contrasting agro-environments of the tropics. InfoCrop, a generic dynamic crop model, provides integrated assessment of the effect of weather, variety, pests and soil management practices on crop growth and yield, as well as on soil nitrogen and organic carbon dynamics in aerobic, anaerobic conditions and also greenhouse gas emissions. The validated model (InfoCrop-mustard) has reasonably predicted phenology, crop growth and yield of mustard crop. The crop was found to be sensitive to changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) and temperature. Future climate change scenario analysis showed that mustard yields are likely to reduce in both irrigated and rainfed conditions. However, these reductions have spatial variation in different mustard growing region of India. In both irrigated and rainfed conditions, yield reduction would be higher in eastern India (67 and 57%) followed by central India (48 and 14%) and northern India (40.3 and 21.4%). This was due to maximum temperature rise in eastern part of the country, projected for 2080. In northern India, yield reduction of irrigated mustard was comparatively less due to prevailing lower temperature in this region during the crop growth period. But rainfed crop was found to be more susceptible to changing climate in north India due to projected reduction in rainfall in future scenarios. Adoption of adaptation measures like late sowing and growing long-duration varieties would be helpful in preventing yield loss of irrigated mustard in different locations of the country. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.