A cautionary note on the use of EESC‐based regression analysis for ozone trend studies
A cautionary note on the use of EESC‐based regression analysis for ozone trend studies
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DOI：
10.1002/2014gl062142
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发表时间：
2015-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
J. Kuttippurath;G. Bodeker;H. Roscoe;P. J. Nair
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Kuttippurath;G. Bodeker;H. Roscoe;P. J. Nair
臭氧回归模型的等效有效平流层氯（EESC）结构利用全周期内臭氧对EESC的单一敏感性值将臭氧变化归因于EESC变化。利用基于空间的总柱臭氧（TCO）测量值，以及构建的使EESC不低于其20世纪90年代末最大值的合成TCO时间序列，我们证明了基于EESC对2000年后极地地区（70-90°）臭氧变化的估计可能错误地表明，在这一时期，EESC驱动了臭氧的增加。对我们合成的“失效的蒙特利尔议定书与恒定的EESC”时间序列的基于EESC的回归表明，在2001-2012年期间，TCO的正趋势在统计上显著不同于零，事实上，没有恢复。我们的分析表明，当使用单一拟合系数的解释变量，拟合到整个数据记录时，需要谨慎，只解释部分记录的变化。
Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) construct of ozone regression models attributes ozone changes to EESC changes using a single value of the sensitivity of ozone to EESC over the whole period. Using space‐based total column ozone (TCO) measurements, and a synthetic TCO time series constructed such that EESC does not fall below its late 1990s maximum, we demonstrate that the EESC‐based estimates of ozone changes in the polar regions (70–90°) after 2000 may, falsely, suggest an EESC‐driven increase in ozone over this period. An EESC‐based regression of our synthetic “failed Montreal Protocol with constant EESC” time series suggests a positive TCO trend that is statistically significantly different from zero over 2001–2012 when, in fact, no recovery has taken place. Our analysis demonstrates that caution needs to be exercised when using explanatory variables, with a single fit coefficient, fitted to the entire data record, to interpret changes in only part of the record.