A spatial–temporal projection model for extended-range forecast in the tropics
A spatial–temporal projection model for extended-range forecast in the tropics
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-014-2353-8
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发表时间：
2015-08
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Zhiwei Zhu;Tim Li;P. Hsu;Jinhai He
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhiwei Zhu;Tim Li;P. Hsu;Jinhai He
建立了基于扩展奇异值分解的统计模型，即时空投影模型（STPM），用于热带出射长波辐射异常（OLRA）的扩展范围（10-30天）预报。该经验模型的特殊功能是使用预测变量-预测变量耦合模式的空间和时间信息来一次性预测所有时间领先（即 10-35 天）的时间变化预测字段。十年后的预测结果显示，与以往的统计模型不同，STPM的技能分数随着预测的提前时间缓慢下降。在大多数热带地区，提前 30-35 天即可发现有用的技能。最高的时间相关系数为 0.4-0.5，出现在北半球冬季（夏季）的海洋大陆（印度和西北太平洋季风区域），超过 99% 的置信水平。 STPM 还能够预测对流异常的空间演化，包括 OLRA 的纬向和经向传播。实时多元MJO指数的预测表明STPM比以前的统计模型获得了更高的技能。在马登-朱利安振荡动力学活动期间，STPM 还表现出了与最先进的动态模型相当的技能，特别是在 15 天及更长的领先优势下。
An extended singularity value decomposition based statistical model, namely the spatial–temporal projection model (STPM), was constructed for the extended-range (10–30-day) forecast of tropical outgoing longwave radiation anomalies (OLRA). The special feature of this empirical model is using the spatial and temporal information of predictor–predictand coupled patterns to predict the temporally varying predictand field at all-time leads (i.e., 10–35 days) at once. A 10-year hindcast result shows that, different from previous statistical models, the skill scores of the STPM dropped slowly with forecast lead times. Useful skills can be detected at 30–35 day leads over most tropical regions. The highest temporal correlation coefficient of 0.4–0.5 appears over the Maritime Continent (Indian and western North Pacific monsoon regions) in boreal winter (summer), exceeding a 99 % confidence level. The STPM is also capable in predicting the spatial evolutions of convective anomalies, including the zonal and meridional propagation of OLRA. The forecast of the Real-time Multivariate MJO indices shows that the STPM attains a higher skill than previous statistical models. The STPM also shows comparable skills with the state-of-the-art dynamic models during the Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation campaign period, especially at 15-day and longer leads.