Volcanic winter in the Garden of Eden: The Toba supereruption and the late Pleistocene human population crash
Volcanic winter in the Garden of Eden: The Toba supereruption and the late Pleistocene human population crash
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伊甸园的火山冬季：多巴超级喷发和更新世晚期人口崩溃
DOI：
10.1130/0-8137-2345-0.71
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发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
S. Ambrose
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Rampino;S. Ambrose
多巴火山爆发（Toba eruption）73，500 BP，印度尼西亚）是过去几十万年来最大的爆炸性喷发。一些证据表明，多巴产生了估计1015- 1016克的平流层灰尘和H2SO 4气溶胶，冰芯数据和大气模型表明，约。全球稠密气溶胶云的6年停留时间。据预测，这种平流层气溶胶负荷将导致“火山冬季”，可能会导致高达15 ℃的区域突然冷却（类似于核冬季情景），全球冷却3-5 ℃（可能更高）。冰芯数据表明，多巴可能促成了长达千年的寒冷事件的最初严重冷却，这表明气候反馈反应，如海洋冷却，增加海冰和积雪覆盖。植物学研究和模型模拟表明，预测的多巴后冷却对当地和区域的影响将是灾难性的。对寒冷敏感的热带植被几乎被完全摧毁，高纬度地区生长季节早期温度降低≥ 10 ℃的预测可能会杀死大多数温带和亚北极森林，幸存的植被受到严重破坏，恢复时间需要数十年。全球气候模型预测，多巴大气扰动将在热带雨林带和季风地区造成严重干旱。这些结果构成了一场全球性的生态灾难，预计植物和动物的现存量将减少，特别是在热带地区。这些环境突变的证据可以在高分辨率的孢粉记录、珊瑚礁和冰芯中找到。60，000年前，人类遭遇了严重的人口瓶颈（可能只有3，000 - 10，000人），随后人口迅速增长，技术创新和移民。突发性多巴火山爆发的气候影响可能造成了瓶颈，这一事件可能是随后技术创新和移民的催化剂。目前的结果，预测的环境和生态影响的火山爆发提供支持多巴事件和人口瓶颈之间的可能联系，并建议，类似的瓶颈之间的其他生物可能预计在大约同一时间。一些黑猩猩种群似乎经历了这样的瓶颈。7 - 6万年前。
The Toba eruption (ca. 73,500 BP, Indonesia) was the largest explosive eruption of the last few hundred thousand years. Several lines of evidence suggest that Toba produced an estimated 1015–10 16 g of stratospheric dust and H2SO4 aerosols, and ice-core data and atmospheric modeling indicate a ca. 6-yr residence time for the dense global aerosol cloud. Such a stratospheric aerosol loading is predicted to have caused a “volcanic winter” with possible abrupt regional coolings of up to 15 C (similar to nuclear winter scenarios), and global cooling of 3–5 C (and possibly greater) for several years. Ice-core data suggest that Toba may have contributed to the initial severe cooling of a millennium-long cold event, suggesting involvement of climate feedback responses such as ocean cooling, and increased sea ice and snow cover. Botanical studies and model simulations suggest that the local and regional effects of the predicted post-Toba cooling would have been disastrous for vegetation. Cold-sensitive tropical vegetation would have been almost totally destroyed, and the predicted reduction of early growing-season temperatures by≥ 10 C in higher latitudes could have killed most temperate and subarctic forests, with surviving vegetation severely damaged and recovery times taking decades. Global climate models predict that the Toba atmospheric perturbation would have caused severe drought in the tropical rainforest belt and in monsoonal regions. These results constitute a global ecological disaster, with expected reductions in standing crops of plants and animals especially in the tropics. Evidence for these abrupt environmental changes may be detectable in high-resolution palynological records, coral reefs, and ice cores.Genetic studies indicate that sometime prior to ca. 60,000 yr ago humans suffered a severe population bottleneck (possibly only 3,000–10,000 individuals), followed eventually by rapid population increase, technological innovations, and migrations. The climatic effects of the paroxysmal Toba eruption could have caused the bottleneck, and the event might have been a catalyst for the technological innovations and migrations that followed. The present results as to the predicted environmental and ecological effects of the eruption lend support to a possible connection between the Toba event and the human population bottleneck, and suggest that similar bottlenecks among other organisms might be expected at about the same time. Some chimpanzee populations appear to have undergone such a bottleneck ca. 70,000–60,000 yr ago.