Putin, Popular Protests, and Political Trajectories in Russia: A Comparative Perspective
Putin, Popular Protests, and Political Trajectories in Russia: A Comparative Perspective
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普京、民众抗议和俄罗斯的政治轨迹：比较视角
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Valerie J. Bunce
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Karrie J. Koesel;Valerie J. Bunce
2011年12月，俄罗斯各地爆发大规模反政府抗议活动。俄罗斯的起义揭示了民众对威权统治的挑战以及当代俄罗斯威权主义的政治轨迹？本研究确定了两种模式的公民动员对独裁领导人，一个侧重于街头抗议，另一个使用选举作为关键的竞技场发起流行的挑战。鼓励这两种模式的三个因素进行了分析：公众对政权的支持下降;越来越多的证据表明，领导人不再是不可战胜的;和改变反对派的政治机会。这些条件在俄罗斯存在的程度，以及这本分类账对那里可能的政治轨迹的建议进行了评估。
During December 2011, large-scale, anti-regime protests erupted across Russia. What do the Russian uprisings reveal about popular challenges to authoritarian rule and the political trajectory of contemporary Russian authoritarianism? This study identifies two models of citizen mobilization against authoritarian leaders, one focusing on street-based protests and the other using elections as the key arena for launching popular challenges. Three factors encouraging both models are analyzed: declining public support for the regime; growing evidence that leaders are no longer invincible; and changing political opportunities for the opposition. The extent to which these conditions are present in Russia and what this ledger suggests about plausible political trajectories there are evaluated.