The Navy's Earth System Prediction Capability: A New Global Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Sea Ice Prediction System Designed for Daily to Subseasonal Forecasting
The Navy's Earth System Prediction Capability: A New Global Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Sea Ice Prediction System Designed for Daily to Subseasonal Forecasting
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DOI：
10.1029/2020ea001199
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发表时间：
2021-04-01
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Phelps, Michael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barton, Neil;Metzger, E. Joseph;Phelps, Michael
本文介绍了新的全球海军地球系统预测能力（Navy-ESPC）耦合大气-海洋-海冰预测系统开发的海军研究实验室（NRL）的业务预测的时间尺度天的亚季节。验证了系统的两种配置：（1）低分辨率16元系综系统和（2）高分辨率确定性系统。Navy-ESPC集合系统于2020年8月投入运营，这是NRL运营合作伙伴舰队数值气象学和海洋学中心首次提供全球大气-海洋-海冰耦合预报，大气预报超过16天，海洋和海冰集合预报。Navy-ESPC的一个独特之处在于，全球海洋模型在集合中以1/12度和在确定性配置中以1/25度进行涡动解析。这些模型的组成部分是目前海军的作战系统：大气层的NAVy全球环境模型（NAVGEM），海洋的混合坐标海洋模型（HYCOM）和海冰的社区冰代码（CICE）。在NAVGEM中引入了物理学更新，以改进赤道现象的模拟，特别是马登-朱利安振荡。根据2017年1月至2018年1月的分析和预报，对低分辨率集合配置和高分辨率确定性配置进行了评估。Navy-ESPC对大尺度大气现象（如MJO、北大西洋涛动（NAO）、南极涛动（AAO）和其他指数）的集合预报能力与其他数值天气预报（NWP）中心相当。在热带和中纬度地区，60天内对海洋表面温度的预报比气候学预报要好。此外，Navy-ESPC泛北极和泛南极海冰范围预测在大约45天内比气候学更好，尽管技能取决于季节。
This paper describes the new global Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (Navy-ESPC) coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice prediction system developed at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) for operational forecasting for timescales of days to the subseasonal. Two configurations of the system are validated: (1) a low-resolution 16-member ensemble system and (2) a high-resolution deterministic system. The Navy-ESPC ensemble system became operational in August 2020, and this is the first time the NRL operational partner, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center, will provide global coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice forecasts, with atmospheric forecasts extending past 16 days, and ocean and sea ice ensemble forecasts. A unique aspect of the Navy-ESPC is that the global ocean model is eddy resolving at 1/12 degrees in the ensemble and at 1/25 degrees in the deterministic configurations. The component models are current Navy operational systems: NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) for the atmosphere, HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) for the ocean, and Community Ice CodE (CICE) for the sea ice. Physics updates to improve the simulation of equatorial phenomena, particularly the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), were introduced into NAVGEM. The low-resolution ensemble configuration and high-resolution deterministic configuration are evaluated based on analyses and forecasts from January 2017 to January 2018. Navy-ESPC ensemble forecast skill for large-scale atmospheric phenomena, such as the MJO, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), and other indices, is comparable to that of other numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers. Ensemble forecasts of ocean sea surface temperatures perform better than climatology in the tropics and midlatitudes out to 60 days. In addition, the Navy-ESPC Pan-Arctic and Pan-Antarctic sea ice extent predictions perform better than climatology out to about 45 days, although the skill is dependent on season.