A retrospective look at coupled ice sheet–climate modeling
A retrospective look at coupled ice sheet–climate modeling
复制标题
冰盖-气候耦合模型的回顾
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-010-9830-9
复制
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
D. Pollard
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Pollard
数值气候模拟自诞生以来，随着计算机能力的发展，已经沿着发展。计算机能力的限制很快导致了不同类型的模型，相对简单的模型能够进行长时间的积分，而复杂的模型适合于短时间的详细快照。认识到这些计算的局限性后，人们开始构想联合收割机和增强来自不同模型类型的知识的策略，Schneider和Dickinson（1974）是交互式“层次”模型的早期支持者。在这一框架内，各种不同复杂性的数值气候模式相互结合使用，从长期模拟的能量平衡模式，到纬向南极动力模式和目前的中等复杂性地球模式，再到短期天气详细情况的大气环流（或全球气候）模式。例如，GCM被用来确定关键的灵敏度（例如对轨道摄动的灵敏度），然后EBM被调整为具有相同的灵敏度。层次结构中每一级的知识和经验都以交互方式应用于其他各级。Henderson-Sellers和McGuffie（1987）、Claussen et al.（2002）和Bartlein and Hostetler（2004），与Claussen et al.（2002）区分组件的集成与描述的细节，并提出术语“频谱”，以避免任何暗示，一个层次比另一个更好（图1）。本文简要地调查了这些想法是如何在过去几十年中，在耦合冰盖气候建模领域找到形式的。在某种程度上，最初的等级概念已经实现，但大多数情况下，由于需要解决
Since its inception, numerical climate modeling has evolved along with available computer power. Limitations in computer power quickly led to distinct types of models, with relatively simple models capable of long integrations, versus complex models suitable for short-duration detailed snapshots. Recognizing these computing limitations, strategies to combine and enhance knowledge from the different model types were conceived, and Schneider and Dickinson (1974) were early proponents of interactive “hierarchies” of models. In that framework, numerical climate models of different complexities, ranging from energy balance models (EBMs) for longterm simulations, through zonal statistical-dynamic models and nowadays, Earth models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), to general circulation (or global climate) models (GCMs) for short-term weather details, are used in combination with each other. For instance, the GCM is used to determine key sensitivities (to orbital perturbations, for example), and then the EBM is tuned to have the same sensitivities. Knowledge and experience at each level of the hierarchy is applied interactively at other levels. Climate-model hierarchies have also been discussed by Henderson-Sellers and McGuffie (1987), Claussen et al.(2002) and Bartlein and Hostetler (2004), with Claussen et al.(2002) distinguishing between integration of components vs. detail of description, and proposing the term “spectrum” to avoid any suggestion that one hierarchical level is better than another (Fig. 1). This paper briefly surveys how these ideas have found form over the last several decades, in the area of coupled ice sheet–climate modeling. To some extent the original concept of hierarchies has been realized, but mostly it has been adapted in different ways than originally envisioned, driven by the need to address the very