Methods for Achieving Dramatic Reductions in Space Mission Cost
Methods for Achieving Dramatic Reductions in Space Mission Cost
复制标题
大幅降低太空任务成本的方法
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. V. Allen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Wertz;Robert C. Conger;M. Rufer;Nicola Sarzi;R. V. Allen
目前用于主要太空计划的方法、流程和技术是基于50年来在太空探索中吸取的经验教训。它们借鉴了大量太空中的成功和失败，代表了我们在如何有效地进行这些计划并获得高成功概率方面的集体智慧。尽管如此，很明显，作为一个整体，他们也让我们进入了一个我们负担不起的太空计划，这个计划很脆弱，容易受到敌人攻击和无法控制的故障（如与碎片或其他航天器碰撞）的影响，而且它不像我们希望的那样能够满足最终用户的需求，也不像其他国家几十年来那样能够响应。幸运的是，技术和我们对太空使命工程的理解都在迅速发展。有许多过去的、当前的和潜在的未来的项目都表明，在保持良好性能和高可靠性的同时，大幅降低成本和进度是可能的。从这些系统中吸取的经验教训可以降低成本，风险，脆弱性，系统易受攻击或随机故障的脆弱性，也许最重要的是，创建一个强大而健康的太空计划，为工程师和科学家提供高效用，令人兴奋的挑战，客户和用户对最终结果感到满意。15年来，微观世界一直在研究和应用世界各地开发的方法。本文总结了大约100种方法、过程、技术和计划中最有用的一些，这些方法、过程、技术和计划可以显著降低空间使命成本。为了便于讨论，我们将其分为9大类--态度、人员、项目、政府/客户、系统工程、使命、发射、航天器技术和操作。对于许多任务，我们应该能够将成本降低5至10倍，同时保持高度可靠性并减少脆弱性和脆弱性。相反，如果我们继续像往常一样做生意，我们根本没有足够的钱去做我们需要做的事情，也没有足够的钱去做我们想在太空中做的事情。
The methods, processes, and technologies currently in use for major space programs are based on 50 years of lessons learned in the exploration of space. They draw on a large number of both successes and failures in space and represent our collective wisdom on how to do these programs efficiently and with a high probability of success. Nonetheless, it is clear that, collectively, they have also gotten us to a space program that we cannot afford, that is fragile and vulnerable to both enemy attack and uncontrollable failures (such as collisions with debris or other spacecraft), and that is not as responsive to meeting the needs of the end user as we would like it to be or as responsive as other nations have been for decades. Fortunately, both technology and our understanding of space mission engineering is advancing rapidly. There are many past, current, and potential future programs that are demonstrating that dramatic cost and schedule reduction are possible while still maintaining good performance and high reliability. The lessons learned from these systems can reduce cost, risk, fragility, system vulnerability to attack or random failures, and, perhaps most important, create a robust and healthy space program that provides high utility, exciting challenges for engineers and scientists, and customers and users delighted with the end results. Microcosm has been both studying and applying approaches developed throughout the world for over 15 years. This paper presents a summary of some of the most useful of roughly 100 methods, processes, technologies, and programs for achieving dramatic reductions in space mission cost. For convenience of discussion, we break these down into 9 broad categories -- Attitude, Personnel, Programmatic, Government/Customer, Systems Engineering, Mission, Launch, Spacecraft Technology, and Operations. For a great many missions, we should be able to reduce cost by a factor of 5 to 10, while maintaining high reliability and reducing fragility and vulnerability. If, instead, we continue with business as usual, we simply don’t have enough money to do the things that we need to do and want to do in space.