High gasoline prices and mortality from motor vehicle crashes and air pollution.
High gasoline prices and mortality from motor vehicle crashes and air pollution.
复制标题
高汽油价格以及机动车碰撞和空气污染造成的死亡率。
DOI：
10.1097/jom.0b013e318162f5c4
复制
发表时间：
2008
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Geraghty,EstellaM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Leigh,JPaul;Geraghty,EstellaM
目的：估计汽油价格上涨对死亡率的影响。方法：我们开发了一个基于模拟的部分平衡模型，该模型估计了天然气价格上涨20%对公共卫生的影响。汽油的价格弹性、机动车碰撞的价格弹性、汽油使用、空气污染和死亡率之间的关系的估计来自经济学、流行病学和医学的文献。结果：如果汽油价格在一年内持续上涨20%，并假设其他价格和因素不变，我们估计：1994年（范围，997至4984）车祸死亡人数减少，600年（范围，300至1500）空气污染死亡人数减少。结合两者，我们估计死亡人数减少了2594人。蒙特卡罗模拟涉及对弹性和关系的不同假设，表明95%的死亡人数减少在1747至3714之间。结论：研究结果表明，高油价对公共健康有影响。学习目标概述在使用基于模拟的部分平衡模型来估计假定汽油价格在12个月内持续上涨20%对公共卫生的影响时所作的假设。
Objective:To estimate the effects of increasing gas prices on mortality.Method:We developed a simulation-based partial equilibrium model that estimated the public health effects of a 20% rise in gas prices. Estimates on price elasticity for gasoline, price elasticity of motor vehicle crashes, relations among gasoline use, air pollution, and mortality were drawn from literature in economics, epidemiology, and medicine.Results:For sustained 20% increases in gasoline prices over 1 year, and assuming other prices and factors were constant, we estimated: 1994 (range, 997 to 4984) fewer deaths from vehicle crashes and 600 (range, 300 to 1500) fewer deaths from air pollution. Combining both, we estimated 2594 fewer deaths. A Monte Carlo simulation involving varying assumptions on elasticities and relations indicated that 95% of the combined reduction in deaths was between 1747 and 3714.Conclusion:Results suggest that high gas prices have public health implications.Learning ObjectivesOutline the assumptions made when using a simulation-based partial equilibrium model to estimate the public health effects of a hypothetical 20% increase in the cost of gasoline, sustained over a 12-month period.