Stochastic Prediction of Drought Class Transitions
Stochastic Prediction of Drought Class Transitions
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DOI：
10.1007/s11269-007-9225-5
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发表时间：
2008-09
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
A. Paulo;L. S. Pereira
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Paulo;L. S. Pereira
本文旨在将马尔可夫链模型应用于源自 SPI 时间序列的干旱类别转换，从而对干旱进行随机表征。考虑了葡萄牙南部几个拥有可用降水更新数据的地点。已获得干旱等级概率、每个严重等级的预期停留时间、干旱等级之间的预期转换时间以及未来 1、2 或 3 个月的干旱严重等级预测。然后将这些预测与 2003-2006 年最近干旱期观测到的干旱类别进行比较。此外，还提出了对累积降水赤字、降低干旱严重程度所需的月降水量以及根据不同降水情景预测的 SPI 值的估计，以补充干旱级别转变的预测。
This paper aims at the stochastic characterization of droughts applying Markov chains modeling to drought class transitions derived from SPI time series. Several sites in Southern Portugal having updated data on precipitation available were considered. The drought class probabilities, the expected residence time in each class of severity, the expected time for the transition between drought classes and the drought severity class predictions 1, 2, or 3 months ahead have been obtained. Those predictions are then compared with observed drought classes for the recent drought periods of 2003–2006. In addition, the estimation of the cumulated precipitation deficits, amount of monthly precipitation needed to decrease drought severity, and foreseen SPI values depending on different precipitation scenarios are also presented as complementing the prediction of drought class transitions.