Predicting Interannual Variability in Sea Surface Height Along the West Coast of Australia Using a Simple Ocean Model
Predicting Interannual Variability in Sea Surface Height Along the West Coast of Australia Using a Simple Ocean Model
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DOI：
10.1029/2021gl094592
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发表时间：
2021-09
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
M. Nagura;M. Mcphaden
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Nagura;M. Mcphaden
澳大利亚西海岸的海面高度（SSH）是当地气候的关键，并受到与热带太平洋El Niño南方涛动（ENSO）相关的远端地面风变率的强烈影响。本研究提供了一种预测澳大利亚西海岸海平面年际变化的方法，该方法使用由ENSO相关风的统计大气模式强迫的简单1.5层动力海洋模式。该模型具有真实的海岸线，并由回归到ENSO指数的再分析地面风驱动。当模型以后验模式运行以预测过去的变化时，可以提前13个月模拟澳大利亚西海岸弗里曼特尔的潮汐计观测结果，这优于持续性。我们得出的结论是，这种方法可以作为衡量更复杂的预测模型的性能的基线，用于预测澳大利亚西海岸的SSH变化。
Sea surface height (SSH) along the west coast of Australia is key to local climate and is strongly forced by remote surface wind variability related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This study provides a method to predict interannual variability in SSH along the west coast of Australia using a simple 1.5‐layer dynamical ocean model forced by a statistical atmospheric model for ENSO‐related winds. The model has realistic coastlines and is driven by reanalysis surface winds regressed onto an ENSO index. The model when run in hindcast mode to predict past variability can simulate tide gauge observations at Fremantle along the west coast of Australia up to 13 months in advance, which outperforms persistence. We conclude that this methodology can be useful as a baseline for gauging the performance of more sophisticated forecast models for predicting SSH variations along the west coast of Australia.