Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation during the Southwest Monsoon
Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation during the Southwest Monsoon
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DOI：
10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017
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发表时间：
2002-10
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
D. Bright;S. Mullen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Bright;S. Mullen
摘要第五代宾夕法尼亚州立大学-国家大气研究中心中尺度模式（MM 5）集成的技能和潜在价值进行了评估，短期（24小时）概率定量降水预报在亚利桑那州西南季风。不同的合奏结构的灵敏度检查分析的不确定性，模型参数化的不确定性，以及两者的组合。模型的不确定性是通过不同的积云和行星边界层参数化，并通过随机强迫代表一个组成部分的次网格尺度的不确定性，其中一阶自回归模型增加了随机扰动的凯恩-弗里奇积云计划和中期预报模型PBL计划。结果表明，降水预报是熟练的，可以帮助业务的天气预报员在季风期间，但预报高度依赖积云参数化。那个...
Abstract The skill and potential value of fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) ensembles are evaluated for short-range (24 h) probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts over Arizona during the Southwest monsoon. The sensitivity of different ensemble constructs is examined with respect to analysis uncertainty, model parameterization uncertainty, and a combination of both. Model uncertainty is addressed through different cumulus and planetary boundary layer parameterizations and through stochastic forcing representative of a component of subgrid-scale uncertainty, in which a first-order autoregression model adds a stochastic perturbation to the Kain–Fritsch cumulus scheme and Medium-Range Forecast Model PBL scheme. The results indicate that the precipitation forecasts are skillful and may assist operational weather forecasters during the monsoon; however, the forecasts are highly dependent on the cumulus parameterization. The a...