Spatially integrated assessment reveals widespread changes in penguin populations on the Antarctic Peninsula.
Spatially integrated assessment reveals widespread changes in penguin populations on the Antarctic Peninsula.
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DOI：
10.1890/11-1588.1
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发表时间：
2012-06
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
H. Lynch;R. Naveen;P. Trathan;W. Fagan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Lynch;R. Naveen;P. Trathan;W. Fagan
企鹅作为重要的海洋中掠食性动物和南极生态系统变化的敏感指标，一直是南极生物长期研究的重点。然而，绝大多数这类研究受到后勤的限制，主要涉及从个体繁殖种群的时间动态推断区域趋势，往往没有考虑种群过程的复杂空间异质性和潜在的环境条件。在一个稳健的等级分析中，我们整合了31年来70个繁育地点的不同普查数据，我们发现，来自密集研究种群的趋势可能不能很好地反映区域动态，并混淆了对环境驱动因素的解释。综合分析的结果证实，南极半岛上几乎所有地点的企鹅卵囊线虫都在减少。研究结果还解决了之前相互矛盾的研究，并明确确定，被认为受益于海冰减少的南极洲企鹅(Chinstrap Penguins)正在区域内减少。相比之下，另一种开阔水域的物种--太平洋企鹅(Pentoo Penguin)的数量正在增加，并向南扩张。这些不同的种群趋势符合最近关于南大洋生物变化的机械论假说，并突显了有影响力但过于简化的“海冰”假说的局限性。在区域范围内汇总人口数据还使我们能够以一种以前不可能实现的方式量化区域人口变化率。
As important marine mesopredators and sensitive indicators of Antarctic ecosystem change, penguins have been a major focus of long-term biological research in the Antarctic. However, the vast majority of such studies have been constrained by logistics and relate mostly to the temporal dynamics of individual breeding populations from which regional trends have been inferred, often without regard for the complex spatial heterogeneity of population processes and the underlying environmental conditions. Integrating diverse census data from 70 breeding sites across 31 years in a robust, hierarchical analysis, we find that trends from intensely studied populations may poorly reflect regional dynamics and confuse interpretation of environmental drivers. Results from integrated analyses confirm that Pygoscelis adeliae (Adélie Penguins) are decreasing at almost all locations on the Antarctic Peninsula. Results also resolve previously contradictory studies and unambiguously establish that P. antarctica (Chinstrap Penguins), thought to benefit from decreasing sea ice, are instead declining regionally. In contrast, another open-water species, P. papua (Gentoo Penguin), is increasing in abundance and expanding southward. These disparate population trends accord with recent mechanistic hypotheses of biological change in the Southern Ocean and highlight limitations of the influential but oversimplified "sea ice" hypothesis. Aggregating population data at the regional scale also allows us to quantify rates of regional population change in a way not previously possible.