Risk Assessment on Regional Water Scarcity in Guangdong Province Based on Principal Component Analysis
Risk Assessment on Regional Water Scarcity in Guangdong Province Based on Principal Component Analysis
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发表时间：
2010
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通讯作者：
L. Rui
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作者：
L. Rui
广东省地处我国南方，属于热带亚热带，降水量丰富，时空分布不均匀，本文通过分析广东省广州、深圳、珠海、汕头、佛山、湛江等城市的水资源、气象、人口、经济、环境等方面的资料，对广东省的水资源风险进行了评价，并对广东省的水资源风险进行了分析。水资源、社会状况、抗旱响应三个标准共18个指标，采用主成分分析法合理确定各指标的权重，建立了风险评价体系，该体系具有独特性简化了数据结构，综合了多种数据来源所反映的信息，在很大程度上消除了一些传统评估方法的主观性。加权指标被归纳为风险指数（例如，资源风险指数、使用风险指数、管理风险指数和总风险指数）对研究城市水资源短缺风险程度进行量化分析，结果表明，农业种植面积、工业污水合格率和用水量10，万元GDP是确定研究区水资源短缺风险的关键指标，这可能表明水资源短缺风险受人类活动的影响最大活动。不同地区的资源风险指数、使用风险指数和管理风险指数的差异可能是由于不同城市的干旱严重程度不同。湛江是缺水的高风险地区，其次是佛山和广州。汕头，珠海，研究还发现，在主成分分析法中，各指标的权重由指标信息和系统效率决定，具有较少的主观性。它可以为所有评估系统提供相同权重的情况，该研究为区域水资源短缺风险评价提供了依据，由于区域水资源短缺风险将持续存在，因此，区域水资源短缺风险评价指标的权重可以根据区域水资源短缺风险的不同而不同建议各级政府重视水资源短缺问题，提高人们对水资源短缺的认识，在今后一段时间内，应努力保护和有效利用水资源。
Guangdong province,located in the south of China,can generally be classified as the tropical and semitropical zones with plentiful precipitation of an uneven distribution over space and time.This study assesses the risk of water resources of cities of Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Zhuhai,Shantou,Foshan,and Zhanjiang in Guangdong Province by analyzing data associated with water resources,meteorology,demography,economy,as well as environmental protection.Three criteria including water resources,social state,and response of drought control consisting of 18 indicators,were adopted to build a risk assessment system.The principal component analysis method was used to reasonably determine the weight of each indicator.The system is unique in simplifying the data structure and synthesizing information reflected by a variety of data sources,largely obviating the subjectivity involved in some traditional evaluation methods.The weighted indicators were summed up as the risk indices(e.g.,resource risk index,use risk index,management risk index,and total risk index)to quantify the risk degree of water scarcity across the study cities.Results showed that agricultural cultivation area,qualified rate of industrial sewage,and water consumption of 10,000 Yuan GDP are the key indicators to determine the risk of the study areas.This might be indicative of the risk of water scarcity being most affected by human activities.Differences in resource risk index,use risk index,and management risk index among different regions were likely to be as a result of varying degrees of drought severity for different cities.Zhanjiang was found to be a high-risk area experiencing water scarcity,followed by Foshan and Guangzhou.Shantou,Zhuhai,and Shenzhen showed relatively lower risks.It was also found that in the principal component analysis method,the weight for each indicator is determined by the indicator information and the system efficiency,suffering from less subjectivity.It can obviate the case of the same weight for all assessment systems,which means that the same indicator in the principal component analysis method can have different weights for varying regions.The study provides a basis for risk assessment on regional water scarcity.As the risk would continue to increase and even threat the sustainable development of society,it is suggested that governments at all levels highlight the situation of water scarcity and raise the awareness of people on this issue.Great effort should be made in the future to protect and efficiently utilize water resources.