Changing rapid weather variability increases influenza epidemic risk in a warming climate
Changing rapid weather variability increases influenza epidemic risk in a warming climate
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab70bc
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发表时间：
2020-04-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Wu, Zhaohua
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Qi;Tan, Zhe-Min;Wu, Zhaohua
据信，地球气候的持续变化将在未来几十年影响流感的病毒活动和传播。然而，在气候变暖的情况下，流感流行风险的严重性尚未达成共识。此前有报道称，暖冬可以降低流感疫情导致的死亡率，但这一关系无法解释2017-2018年冬季北方中纬度地区多个国家致命的流感疫情，这是近几十年来最温暖的冬季之一。在这里，我们揭示了2017-2018年广泛传播的流感疫情可以归因于异常强烈的快速天气变化。我们从历史数据中证明，秋季的大规模快速天气变化可以在人口密集的北方中纬度地区的随后几个月内引发致命的流感流行; 2017-2018年的流感流行季节是一个典型案例。我们进一步表明，气候模式预测达成共识，秋季的快速天气变率将继续加强，在气候变暖的北方中纬度地区的一些地区，这意味着在世纪后期，在一些人口稠密的地区，流感流行的风险可能会增加20%至50%。
It is believed that the continuing change in the Earth's climate will affect the viral activity and transmission of influenza over the coming decades. However, a consensus of the severity of the risk of an influenza epidemic in a warming climate has not been reached. It was previously reported that the warmer winter can reduce influenza epidemic caused mortality, but this relation cannot explain the deadly influenza epidemic in many countries over northern mid-latitudes in the winter of 2017-2018, one of the warmest winters in recent decades. Here, we reveal that the widely spread 2017-2018 influenza epidemic can be attributed to the abnormally strong rapid weather variability. We demonstrate, from historical data, that the large rapid weather variability in autumn can precondition the deadly influenza epidemic in the subsequent months in highly populated northern mid-latitudes; and the influenza epidemic season of 2017-2018 was a typical case. We further show that climate model projections reach a consensus that the rapid weather variability in autumn will continue to strengthen in some regions of northern mid-latitudes in a warming climate, implying that the risk of an influenza epidemic may increase 20% to 50% in some highly populated regions in the later 21st century.