Fertility decline and a pay‐as‐you‐go pension system in a two‐sector model
Fertility decline and a pay‐as‐you‐go pension system in a two‐sector model
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双部门模型中的生育率下降和现收现付养老金制度
DOI：
10.1111/meca.12371
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Yanagihara Mitsuyoshi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hamada Kojun;Kaneko Akihiko;Yanagihara Mitsuyoshi
我们使用两部门重叠代模型研究生育率下降如何影响现收现付养老金的收益。我们发现生育率下降是否会降低养老金福利取决于两个部门之间的资本密集度排名。当消费品行业是资本密集型行业时，生育率下降会降低养老金福利。相反，当投资商品部门是资本密集型时，价格弹性的大小决定了生育率下降是否会减少养老金福利。当弹性较敏感时，生育率下降会增加养老金福利。我们也给出了数值模拟。我们的研究结果表明，尽管生育率下降在理论上可能会增加养老金福利，但这种矛盾的结果不太可能发生。
We investigate how fertility decline affects the benefit of a pay‐as‐you‐go pension using a two‐sector overlapping generations model. We show that whether fertility decline reduces pension benefits is determined by the capital intensity ranking between the two sectors. When the consumption‐goods sector is capital‐intensive, fertility decline decreases pension benefits. Contrastingly, when the investment‐goods sector is capital‐intensive, the size of the price elasticity determines whether fertility decline reduces pension benefits. When elasticity is sensitive, fertility declines increase pension benefits. We also present numerical simulations. Our results suggest that, although it remains theoretically possible that fertility decline increases pension benefits, such a paradoxical result is unlikely to occur .