A Comparison Study for Mortality Forecasting Models by Average Life Expectancy
A Comparison Study for Mortality Forecasting Models by Average Life Expectancy
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DOI：
10.5351/kjas.2011.24.1.115
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发表时间：
2011-02-01
影响因子：
0.2
通讯作者：
Kim, Kee-Whan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jeong, Seunghwan;Kim, Kee-Whan
利用死亡率预测模型和寿命表预测平均预期寿命是评估未来死亡率水平的有效方法。目前的平均预期寿命实际值与韩国统计局2006年人口预测中的平均预期寿命预测值之间存在差异。原因是平均预期寿命预测没有反映实际寿命的增长速度。问题的主要原因可能是预测判断、选择或使用死亡率预测模型的错误。本文主要从死亡率预测模型的选择来考察这一问题。韩国统计局应采用经过大量调查的死亡率预测模型，进行2011年人口预测，避免2006年人口预测中观察到的错误。本文比较了五种死亡率预测模型，即广泛使用的LC（Lee和Carter）模型及其变体，以及处理死亡概率的HP 8（Heligman和Pollard 8参数）模型。我们利用模型结果对2010 - 2030年的平均预期寿命进行了性别预测，并与同期的2006年人口预测进行了比较。所有五个模型预测的平均预期寿命均高于2006年人口预测。因此，我们表明，新的平均预期寿命预测是相对适合未来的死亡率水平。
By use of a mortality forecasting model and a life table, forecasting the average life expectancy is an effective way to evaluate the future mortality level. There are differences between the actual values of average life expectancy at present and the forecasted values of average life expectancy in population projection 2006 from Statistics Korea. The reason is that the average life expectancy forecasts did not reflect the increasing speed of the actual ones. The main causes of the problem may be errors from judgment for projection, from choice, or use of a mortality forecasting model. In this paper, we focus on the choice of the mortality forecasting model to inspect this problem. Statistics Korea should take a mortality forecasting model with considerable investigation to proceed population projection 2011 without the errors observed in population projection 2006. We compare the five mortality forecasting models that are the LC(Lee and Carter) model used widely and its variants, and the HP8(Heligman and Pollard 8 parameter) model for handling death probability. We make average life expectancy forecasts by sex using modeling results from 2010 to 2030 and compare with that of the population projection 2006 during the same period. The average life expectancy from all five models are forecasted higher than that of the population projection 2006. Therefore, we show that the new average life expectancy forecasts are relatively suitable to the future mortality level.