On tropical cyclone frequency and the warm pool area
On tropical cyclone frequency and the warm pool area
复制标题
关于热带气旋频率和暖池区域
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Benestad
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Benestad
抽象的。通过比较暖池面积的季节变化和热带气旋数量的季节变化，检验了热带气旋生成速率随暖池面积增大而增大的命题。本文根据北方半球的经验数据进行了分析，其中与热带气旋活动有关的暖池被定义为26.5°C SST等温线所包围的面积A。将类似的分析应用于温度加权面积AT，具有类似的结果。在北大西洋和西北太平洋的温度加权面积与同一海洋盆地的气旋数量N之间发现了一种有趣的具有高度统计意义的非线性关系，但在北印度洋上没有发现这种模式。基于N和A之间的历史关系，开发了一个简单的统计模型。简单的模型，然后验证独立的年际变化的季节性气旋计数在北大西洋，但相关性在西北太平洋没有统计意义。然而，在北印度洋，N和A之间没有相关性。在某些海洋盆地，气旋数量与温度加权面积之间的非线性关系可以解释为什么气旋数量没有随时间变化的线性趋势，也可以解释为什么大西洋飓风数量最近有所增加。结果还表明，热带气旋的数量对面积A不敏感的概念是一种误解。
Abstract. The proposition that the rate of tropical cyclogenesis increases with the size of the "warm pool" is tested by comparing the seasonal variation of the warm pool area with the seasonality of the number of tropical cyclones. An analysis based on empirical data from the Northern Hemisphere is presented, where the warm pool associated with tropical cyclone activity is defined as the area, A, enclosed by the 26.5°C SST isotherm. Similar analysis was applied to the temperature weighted area AT with similar results. An intriguing non-linear relationship of high statistical significance was found between the temperature weighted area in the North Atlantic and the North-West Pacific on the one hand and the number of cyclones, N, in the same ocean basin on the other, but this pattern was not found over the North Indian Ocean. A simple statistical model was developed, based on the historical relationship between N and A. The simple model was then validated against independent inter-annual variations in the seasonal cyclone counts in the North Atlantic, but the correlation was not statistically significant in the North-West Pacific. No correlation, however, was found between N and A in the North Indian Ocean. A non-linear relationship between the cyclone number and temperature weighted area may in some ocean basins explain both why there has not been any linear trend in the number of cyclones over time as well as the recent upturn in the number of Atlantic hurricanes. The results also suggest that the notion of the number of tropical cyclones being insensitive to the area A is a misconception.