Improving the short-term prediction of suicidal behavior.
Improving the short-term prediction of suicidal behavior.
复制标题
改善自杀行为的短期预测。
DOI：
10.1016/j.amepre.2014.06.004
复制
发表时间：
2014-09
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Nock MK
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Glenn CR;Nock MK
国家自杀预防行动联盟研究优先任务组的理想目标 3 是预测谁在不久的将来有自杀企图的风险。尽管数十年来致力于研究自杀和自杀行为的风险和保护因素，但令人惊讶的是，人们对这些行为的短期预测知之甚少。在本文中，我们提出了几个问题，如果得到解答，可以提高对短期或迫在眉睫的自杀行为风险的识别。首先，哪些因素可以预测从自杀念头到自杀企图的转变？其次，哪些因素是在未来几小时、几天或几周内实现这一转变的特别有力的预测因素？第三，自杀行为短期风险最重要的客观标志是什么？第四，结合风险和保护因素信息的哪种方法可以产生最佳预测？我们建议，关于自杀行为评估和预测的下一代研究应该从双变量风险和保护因素的横断面研究转向旨在确定多变量短期预测指数、检查综合这些信息的方法以及测试预测和预防自杀事件的能力的前瞻性研究。
Aspirational Goal 3 of the National Action Alliance for Suicide Prevention’s Research Prioritization Task Force is to predict who is at risk for attempting suicide in the near future. Despite decades of research devoted to the study of risk and protective factors for suicide and suicidal behavior, surprisingly little is known about the short-term prediction of these behaviors. In this paper, we propose several questions that, if answered, could improve the identification of short-term, or imminent, risk for suicidal behavior. First, what factors predict the transition from suicidal thoughts to attempts? Second, what factors are particularly strong predictors of making this transition over the next hours, days, or weeks? Third, what are the most important objective markers of short-term risk for suicidal behavior? And fourth, what method of combining information about risk and protective factors yields the best prediction? We propose that the next generation of research on the assessment and prediction of suicidal behavior should shift, from cross-sectional studies of bivariate risk and protective factors, to prospective studies aimed at identifying multivariate, short-term prediction indices, examining methods of synthesizing this information, and testing the ability to predict and prevent suicidal events.