Uncertainties of precipitation products and their impacts on runoff estimates through hydrological land surface simulation in Southeast Asia
Uncertainties of precipitation products and their impacts on runoff estimates through hydrological land surface simulation in Southeast Asia
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DOI：
10.3178/hrl.7.79
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
S. Kotsuki;Kenji Tanaka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Kotsuki;Kenji Tanaka
降水是径流模拟中最重要的气候变量之一。本研究的主要目的是揭示降水产品中的不确定性，并说明这些不确定性如何影响东南亚地区的径流估算。通过降水产品对比和水文模拟，得出以下主要结论。在东南亚，基于测量站的降水产品具有相似的月降水模式，降水量差异较小，但缅甸和苏门答腊岛的降水产品很少使用测量站。相反，在东南亚地区，如果降水产品使用的测量站很少，则季节和年降水量的不确定性很大。在东南亚地区，由于降水量的差异大部分转化为径流量的差异，因此降水量的小误差很容易导致径流量的大误差。即使位于多雨的东南亚，降水误差对径流估算的影响也因降水量和径流比的不同而不同。在昭披耶盆地，相对较低的降水和径流比导致模拟径流的百分比差异很大。在伊洛瓦底江流域，相对较高的降雨量和径流比导致模拟径流量差异较大。
: Precipitation is one of the most important climate variables for runoff simulation. The main objective of this study is to reveal uncertainties in precipitation products and demonstrate how those uncertainties affect runoff estima-tions in Southeast Asia. Through comparing precipitation products and performing hydrological simulations, the authors have reached the following main conclusions. In Southeast Asia, gauge-based precipitation products have similar monthly precipitation patterns and small differences in precipitation amount, except for Myanmar and Sumatra Island where few gauging stations are used for the precipitation products. Conversely, the uncertainties in seasonal and annual precipitation are large in Southeast Asia if few gauging stations are used for the precipitation products. Since most of the difference in precipitation translates to difference in runoff in wet region, small errors in precipitation can easily result in large errors in runoff in Southeast Asia. Even if located in wet Southeast Asia, impacts of precipitation errors on runoff estimates are different depending on precipitation amount and runoff ratio. In Chao Phraya Basin, relatively low precipitation and runoff ratio cause large percentage differences in simulated runoff. In Irrawaddy Basin, relatively high precipitation and runoff ratio cause large difference in simulated runoff volume.