Solar Irradiance Modulates the Asian Summer Monsoon—ENSO Relationship Over the Last Millennium
Solar Irradiance Modulates the Asian Summer Monsoon—ENSO Relationship Over the Last Millennium
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DOI：
10.1029/2023gl105708
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发表时间：
2023-12
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Xiaojing Du;Sylvia Dee;Jun Hu;K. Thirumalai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xiaojing Du;Sylvia Dee;Jun Hu;K. Thirumalai
亚洲夏季风（ASM）与厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）遥相关，但这种关系是不稳定的，并且在近几十年来发生了显着变化。描述此类转变的驱动因素对于改善 ASM 预测和极端事件准备至关重要。古气候记录表明，在数十年到百年的时间尺度上，ASM 强度与太阳活动之间存在联系，但 20 世纪的数据太短，无法测试其机制。在这里，我们使用上个千年的古气候数据同化重建和模型模拟来评估太阳辐照度如何影响 ASM-ENSO 关系。我们发现高太阳辐照度削弱了ENSO与东亚夏季风（EASM）的相关性，但加强了ENSO与南亚夏季风（SASM）的相关性。太阳辐照度可能分别通过西太平洋副热带高压和 ENSO 事件幅度的变化影响 ENSO-EASM 和 ENSO-SASM 遥相关的强度。我们建议在全球变暖情景下的十年 ASM 降雨预测中需要考虑太阳活动。
The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is teleconnected to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but this relationship is nonstationary and has shifted significantly in recent decades. Characterizing the drivers of such shifts is crucial for improving ASM prediction and extreme event preparedness. Paleoclimate records indicate a link between ASM strength and solar activity on multidecadal‐to‐centennial timescales, but 20th‐century data are too short to test mechanisms. Here we evaluate how solar irradiance influences the ASM‐ENSO relationship using last‐millennium paleoclimate data assimilation reconstructions and model simulations. We find that high solar irradiance weakens the ENSO‐East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) correlation, but strengthens the ENSO‐South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) correlation. Solar irradiance likely influences the strength of the ENSO‐EASM and ENSO‐SASM teleconnections via changes in the Western Pacific Subtropical High and the amplitude of ENSO events, respectively. We suggest a need for considering solar activity in decadal ASM rainfall predictions under global warming scenarios.