Predicting new venture survival and growth: Does the fog lift?
Predicting new venture survival and growth: Does the fog lift?
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s11187-016-9713-1
复制
发表时间：
2013-12
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Alex Coad;J. Frankish;R. Roberts;D. Storey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alex Coad;J. Frankish;R. Roberts;D. Storey
本文考察了随着创业年龄的增长，新创企业的绩效是否变得更容易预测：雾会消散吗？为了解决这个问题，我们主要借鉴了一个理论框架，该框架最初是由Levinthal （Adm Sci Q 36(3): 397-420, 1991）在管理背景下提出的，该框架将新企业的销售视为随机游走，但生存取决于可用资源的存量（由规模代表）。我们得出了理论预测，并对6579家英国新企业的10年队列进行了测试。我们观察到，我们预测公司增长的能力在进入后的几年里会恶化——就选择环境而言，“雾”似乎变厚了。然而，我们的生存预测随着时间的推移而提高，这意味着“迷雾”确实消散了。
This paper investigates whether new venture performance becomes easier to predict as the venture ages: does the fog lift? To address this question we primarily draw upon a theoretical framework, initially formulated in a managerial context by Levinthal (Adm Sci Q 36(3):397–420, 1991) that sees new venture sales as a random walk but survival being determined by the stock of available resources (proxied by size). We derive theoretical predictions that are tested with a 10-year cohort of 6579 UK new ventures in the UK. We observe that our ability to predict firm growth deteriorates in the years after entry—in terms of the selection environment, the ‘fog’ seems to thicken. However, our survival predictions improve with time—implying that the ‘fog’ does lift.