High resolution climate data for Austria in the period 2008–2040 from a statistical climate change model
High resolution climate data for Austria in the period 2008–2040 from a statistical climate change model
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来自统计气候变化模型的奥地利 2008-2040 年高分辨率气候数据
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Schmid
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作者：
F. Strauss;H. Formayer;E. Schmid
奥地利的气候变化数据已生成2008年至2040年期间，时间/空间分辨率为1天和1平方公里。气候变化数据基于1975年至2007年历史每日气象站数据，以及重复引导的线性回归模型。空间分辨率基于 60 个气候集群，这些集群代表了 1961 年至 1990 年期间年平均降水量和年平均气温的同质气候。对于每个气候集群，都进行了回归模型拟合并外推了 2008 年至 2040 年期间的情况。我们的回归模型的组成部分是：（1）通过使用源自均质数据集的每年约 0.05 °C 的平均全国趋势，对 1975 年至 2007 年观测到的线性温度趋势进行外推；（2）对历史温度残差以及对一些其他天气参数（例如太阳辐射、降水、相对湿度和风速）的观测进行重复引导。因此，我们确保一致的物理、空间和时间相关性。降水情景的制定是为了考虑任何可能的更广泛的降水模式。这些情景包括年降水量增加/减少，以及年降水量不变但季节分布不同。这些气候变化数据可在以下网址获取： http://www.landnutzung.at/Klima_Daten.html 版权所有 © 2012 英国皇家气象学会
Climate change data for Austria have been produced for the period from 2008 to 2040, with a temporal/spatial resolution of 1 d and 1 km2. The climate change data are based on historical daily weather station data from 1975 to 2007, and linear regression modelling with repeated bootstrapping. The spatial resolution is based on 60 climate clusters which represent homogenous climates with respect to mean annual precipitation sums and mean annual temperatures from the period 1961 to 1990. For each climate cluster, a regression model fit has been performed and extrapolated for the period 2008–2040. The integral parts of our regression model are: (1) the extrapolation of the observed linear temperature trend from 1975 to 2007, by using an average national trend of approximately 0.05 °C per year derived from a homogenized dataset, and (2) the repeated bootstrapping of historical temperature residuals, and of the observations for some other weather parameters, such as solar radiation, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed. Thus, we ensure consistent physical, spatial and temporal correlations. Precipitation scenarios have been developed to account for any possible wider range of precipitation patterns. These scenarios include increased/decreased annual precipitation sums, as well as unchanged annual precipitation sums, but with different seasonal distributions. These climate change data are available at: http://www.landnutzung.at/Klima_Daten.html Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society