Contrasting urban and rural heat stress responses to climate change
Contrasting urban and rural heat stress responses to climate change
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DOI：
10.1029/2011gl050576
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发表时间：
2012-02-14
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Lawrence, D. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fischer, E. M.;Oleson, K. W.;Lawrence, D. M.
高温和高湿度会引起人体不适，并可能增加发病率和死亡率。利用一个嵌入城市模式的全球气候模式，探讨了湿球地球仪温度（一种反映温度和湿度的热应力指数）的城乡差异。在每个模型时间步长计算湿球地球仪温度，以解决热应力日循环。该模型模拟了城市地区比邻近农村地区高得多的热应力。城市湿度不足只能微弱地抵消由于夜间城市热岛效应而增强的热应力。城市和农村在热应激方面的差异在夜间以及中纬度和亚热带地区最为明显。在热浪期间，城市热应力放大特别明显。城市和农村地表的CO2浓度增加一倍，热应激也会大大增加。热带地区经历了最大的高温压力夜晚数量的增加，尽管相对较弱，类似于2摄氏度的变暖。由于缺乏明显的年周期和较高的相对湿度，适度的热带变暖导致热带地区一年中有一半以上的时间达到目前的创纪录水平，而这些地区的适应能力往往很低。虽然城市和农村对2 × CO2的绝对热应激反应相似，但城市中极高热应激的夜晚发生率高于周围农村地区。引用：Fischer，E. M.，K. W. Oleson和D. M.劳伦斯（2012），对比城市和农村的热应力对气候变化的反应，地球物理学。保留信函：39，L03705，doi：10.1029/2011GL050576。
Hot temperatures in combination with high humidity cause human discomfort and may increase morbidity and mortality. A global climate model with an embedded urban model is used to explore the urban-rural contrast in the wet-bulb globe temperature, a heat stress index accounting for temperature and humidity. Wet-bulb globe temperatures are calculated at each model time step to resolve the heat stress diurnal cycle. The model simulates substantially higher heat stress in urban areas compared to neighbouring rural areas. Urban humidity deficit only weakly offsets the enhanced heat stress due to the large night-time urban heat island. The urban-rural contrast in heat stress is most pronounced at night and over mid-latitudes and subtropics. During heatwaves, the urban heat stress amplification is particularly pronounced. Heat stress strongly increases with doubled CO2 concentrations over both urban and rural surfaces. The tropics experience the greatest increase in number of high-heat-stress nights, despite a relatively weak similar to 2 degrees C warming. Given the lack of a distinct annual cycle and high relative humidity, the modest tropical warming leads to exceedance of the present-day record levels during more than half of the year in tropical regions, where adaptive capacity is often low. While the absolute urban and rural heat stress response to 2 x CO2 is similar, the occurrence of nights with extremely high heat stress increases more in cities than surrounding rural areas. Citation: Fischer, E. M., K. W. Oleson, and D. M. Lawrence (2012), Contrasting urban and rural heat stress responses to climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L03705, doi: 10.1029/2011GL050576.