Spatial Microsimulation: A Reference Guide for Users
Spatial Microsimulation: A Reference Guide for Users
复制标题
空间微观模拟：用户参考指南
DOI：
10.1007/978-94-007-4623-7_14
复制
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Birkin M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Birkin M
本章描述了适用于英国小地理区域的动态空间微观模拟模型。该模型不仅能够洞察地区的人口、社会和经济结构，还能洞察居民的行为模式。详细讨论了该项目的数据、软件和计算要求。我们认为，底层程序非常复杂，计算要求高，智力上具有挑战性，但回报是巨大的。由此产生的应用程序的价值通过一系列实质性领域来说明，从卫生服务、交通和犯罪到住房和其他有形基础设施的要求。提出了正在进行的增强动态空间 MSM 研究议程的一些主要内容。在模型结果的评估和解释方面需要取得更多进展，这意味着更好的模型验证技术以及在模型用户可能参与的社会过程方面开展更多工作。还有人认为，可以从更丰富的数据的组合中提取更大的价值，并且建模方法的改进，在这方面，特别值得注意的是结合基于代理的模型的可能性。
This chapter describes a dynamic spatial microsimulation model which is applicable for small geographical areas across Great Britain. The model is capable of providing insights into not only the demographic, social and economic structure of areas but also the behaviour patterns of residents. The data, software and computational requirements of this project are discussed in some detail. We argue that the underlying procedures are sophisticated, computationally demanding and intellectually challenging but that the rewards are significant. The value of the resulting applications is illustrated with reference to a range of substantive domains, ranging from health services, transportation and crime to requirements for housing and other physical infrastructure. Some major elements of an ongoing agenda for research into the enhancement of dynamic spatial MSM are suggested. More progress is needed in the assessment and interpretation of model results, which means better techniques for model validation and more work on the social processes through which model users may be engaged. It is also argued that greater value can be extracted from a combination of more abundant data, and the refinement of modelling methods, in respect of which the possibilities for the incorporation of agent-based models, is particularly noted.