Inter-Epidemic and Between-Season Persistence of Rift Valley Fever: Vertical Transmission or Cryptic Cycling?
Inter-Epidemic and Between-Season Persistence of Rift Valley Fever: Vertical Transmission or Cryptic Cycling?
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DOI：
10.1111/tbed.12082
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发表时间：
2015-02-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Beechler, B. R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Manore, C. A.;Beechler, B. R.
裂谷热是一种新出现的人畜共患蚊媒传染病，已被确定为有可能传播到其他大陆，并可能造成大规模牲畜死亡。在赤道非洲，裂谷热的爆发与高降雨量有关，而高降雨量是病媒数量最多的时候。然而，裂谷热病毒如何在两次流行期间和两个季节之间持续存在尚不清楚。了解各流行病之间的持续性以及病媒和宿主的作用，对于制定有效的裂谷热控制管理方案至关重要。我们建立了裂谷热传播的数学模型，并利用该模型探索了不同的持续性情景，包括垂直传播和替代野生动物宿主，并以南非克鲁格国家公园的布法罗为例进行了研究。我们的结果表明，裂谷热的持续性是众多易感宿主物种、蚊子物种、垂直传播和环境随机性之间的微妙平衡。进一步的调查不应集中在一个单一的物种，而是应该考虑无数的易感宿主物种时，寻求了解疾病的动态。
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging zoonotic mosquito-borne infectious disease that has been identified as a risk for spread to other continents and can cause mass livestock mortality. In equatorial Africa, outbreaks of RVF are associated with high rainfall, when vector populations are at their highest. It is, however, unclear how RVF virus persists during the inter-epidemic periods and between seasons. Understanding inter-epidemic persistence as well as the role of vectors and hosts is paramount to creating effective management programmes for RVF control. We created a mathematical model for the spread of RVF and used the model to explore different scenarios of persistence including vertical transmission and alternate wildlife hosts, with a case study on buffalo in Kruger National Park, South Africa. Our results suggest that RVF persistence is a delicate balance between numerous species of susceptible hosts, mosquito species, vertical transmission and environmental stochasticity. Further investigations should not focus on a single species, but should instead consider a myriad of susceptible host species when seeking to understand disease dynamics.