Of rulers, rebels, and revenue: State capacity, civil war onset, and primary commodities
Of rulers, rebels, and revenue: State capacity, civil war onset, and primary commodities
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统治者、叛乱者和收入：国家能力、内战爆发和初级商品
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Cameron G. Thies
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cameron G. Thies
本文通过关注初级商品的作用，探讨了内战爆发与国家能力之间的关系。这是通过将内战文学的重点从几乎完全关注叛乱分子的动机转移到将叛乱分子和统治者都视为寻求收入的掠夺者来实现的。这种掠夺性理论的方法预期，更高水平的国家能力应该阻止内战的爆发，而内战的爆发应该减少国家能力。此外，自然资源租金预计将提高国家能力，而不是增加内战爆发的可能性。为了解决在内战爆发的单方程模型中包含国家能力的财政措施所带来的内禀问题，本研究采用了一个联立方程框架。这一框架使我们能够捕捉内战爆发对国家能力的影响，反之亦然，以及初级商品对两个内生协变量的影响。统计分析的主要结果包括：国家能力不影响内战的爆发，但内战的爆发会降低国家能力;初级产品只直接影响国家能力-它们不直接影响内战的爆发，如以前对文献的贡献所示。
This article investigates the relationship between civil war onset and state capacity through a focus on the role of primary commodities. This is accomplished by moving the focus of the civil war literature away from an almost exclusive concern with the incentives of rebels to a consideration of both rebels and rulers as revenue seeking predators. This predatory theory approach expects that higher levels of state capacity should deter civil war onset, while civil war onset should reduce state capacity. Further, natural resource rents are expected to enhance state capacity, rather than increase the likelihood of civil war onset. In order to deal with the endogeneity posed by including fiscal measures of state capacity in single equation models of civil war onset, this study employs a simultaneous equations framework. This framework allows us to capture the effects of civil war onset on state capacity and vice versa, as well as the effects of primary commodities on both endogenous covariates. The main findings from the statistical analyses include: state capacity does not affect civil war onset, but civil war onset reduces state capacity; and primary products directly affect only state capacity — they do not directly affect civil war onset, as found in previous contributions to the literature.