Validating a Markov Model of Treatment for Hepatitis C Virus-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma
Validating a Markov Model of Treatment for Hepatitis C Virus-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma
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DOI：
10.3414/me9124
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发表时间：
2008-01-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Inoue, Y.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ishida, H.;Wong, J. B.;Inoue, Y.
目的：我们建立并验证了一个马尔可夫模型来模拟hcv相关肝细胞癌（HCC）治疗的预后，以评估HCC替代治疗的成本效益。方法：将马尔可夫状态纳入模型，以肝癌分期和基础肝功能为替代指标。回顾性分析来自三所大学医院的793例患者的资料，确定每种治疗的Kaplan-Meier生存曲线，并由此得出转移概率。每种治疗的Markov模型预测的95% ci和Kaplan-Meier生存曲线存在大量重叠。预测的生存曲线也与全国调查数据相似，支持我们模型的外部有效性。结论：我们对HCC预后的马尔可夫模型估计具有内部和外部有效性，应被认为适用于估计HCC相关的成本效益。
Objective: We created and validated a Markov model to simulate the prognosis with treatment for HCV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for assessment of cost-effectiveness for alternative treatments of HCC.Method: Markov state incorporated into the model consisted of the treatment as a surrogate for HCC stage and underlying liver function. Retrospective data of 793 patients from three university hospitals were used to determine Kaplan-Meier survival curves for each treatment and transition probabilities were derived from them.Results. There was substantial overlap in the 95% CIs of the Markov model predicted and the Kaplan-Meier survival curves for each therapy. The predicted survival curves were also similar with those from the nationwide survey data supporting the external validity of our model.Conclusions: Our Markov model estimates for prognosis with HCC have both internal and external validity and should be considered applicable for estimating cost-effectiveness related to HCC.