Climate‐driven variability in lake and wetland distribution across the Prairie Pothole Region: From modern observations to long‐term reconstructions with space‐for‐time substitution
Climate‐driven variability in lake and wetland distribution across the Prairie Pothole Region: From modern observations to long‐term reconstructions with space‐for‐time substitution
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草原坑洼地区湖泊和湿地分布的气候驱动变化：从现代观测到时空替代的长期重建
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
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通讯作者：
F. Schwartz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ganming Liu;F. Schwartz
本研究旨在（1）探索气候变率与北美草原坑洼地区（PPR）封闭流域地表水体的人口动态之间的联系，（2）测试时空（SFT）替代方法用于水文系统分析的有效性。1981年至2000年的观测结果表明，气候相对于年残留水分（ε，即，降水量减去潜在蒸发量或蒸散量）的PPR在空间（超过0.6 m）和时间（在北达科他州中部超过0.3 m）上发生变化，导致水域和水体数量的时空变化。对密苏里州Coteau沿空间ε梯度沿着一系列地表水复合体的空间分析表明，四参数玻尔兹曼函数定量描述了水体数量（N）如何随5年平均年ε（R2 = 0.76）而变化。水文模型重建的月N数据（1931-2005）的时间分析也表明，随时间变化的N值与ε高度相关，并产生了几乎相同的玻尔兹曼函数。这一结果证实了SFT替代的有效性，并表明详细的现代空间数据可以用来解释水文系统的行为在过去或未来的气候条件下。这项研究还通过提供整个PPR的时空水体分布的完整图片以及将气候预测快速转换为地表水评估的潜力，对水资源管理具有重要的区域尺度影响。
This study was designed (1) to explore the links between climate variability and the population dynamics of closed‐basin surface water bodies of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) in North America, and (2) to test the validity of space‐for‐time (SFT) substitution approach for the analysis of hydrologic systems. Observational results from 1981 to 2000 show that the climate with respect to annual residual moisture (ε, i.e., precipitation minus potential evaporation or evapotranspiration) of the PPR changed across space (over 0.6 m) and time (over 0.3 m in central North Dakota), causing spatiotemporal variability in water areas and water body numbers. Spatial analysis of a suite of surface water complexes along a spatial ε gradient in the Missouri Coteau shows that a four parameter Boltzmann function quantitatively describes how the number of water bodies (N) varied as a function of 5‐year average annualε (R2 = 0.76). Temporal analysis of monthly N data (1931–2005) reconstructed by a hydrologic model also demonstrates that values of temporally varying N were highly correlated with εand yielded a nearly identical Boltzmann function. This result confirms the validity of SFT substitution and suggests that detailed modern spatial data can be used to interpret hydrologic system behaviors under past or future climate conditions. This study also has important regional‐scale implications for water resources management by providing a complete picture of the spatiotemporal water body distribution across the entire PPR and the potential for rapidly converting climate predictions into surface water assessments.