The sensitivity of West Antarctica to the submarine melting feedback
The sensitivity of West Antarctica to the submarine melting feedback
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DOI：
10.1002/2017gl072514
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发表时间：
2017-03-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Williams, C. Rosie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arthern, Robert J.;Williams, C. Rosie
我们使用一个冰盖模型与现实的初始条件来预测如何阿蒙森海部门的西南极洲最近观察到的海底融化率。在这些模拟中，我们隔离的正反馈的影响，由潜艇融化在新的海洋洞穴淹没在撤退期间，允许目前的气候，崩解锋和现有的冰架下融化持续到21世纪世纪。即使没有来自气候变化、冰架崩塌或冰崖崩塌的额外作用力，该模型也预测了南极洲西部的缓慢、持续退缩，这是由海洋冰盖的不稳定性和目前海洋融化的水平所驱动的。当观测到的融化速率包括在新的冰下海洋洞穴中时，模拟的海平面贡献增加，并且对于足够强烈的融化，它随着时间的推移而加速。可以推导出海平面贡献的条件贝叶斯概率，但需要改进对海洋热量输送的预测。
We use an ice sheet model with realistic initial conditions to forecast how the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica responds to recently observed rates of submarine melting. In these simulations, we isolate the effects of a positive feedback, driven by submarine melt in new ocean cavities flooded during retreat, by allowing the present climate, calving front and melting beneath existing ice shelves to persist over the 21st century. Even without additional forcing from changes in climate, ice shelf collapse, or ice cliff collapse, the model predicts slow, sustained retreat of West Antarctica, driven by the marine ice sheet instability and current levels of ocean-driven melting. When observed rates of melting are included in new subglacial ocean cavities, the simulated sea level contribution increases, and for sufficiently intense melting it accelerates over time. Conditional Bayesian probabilities for sea level contributions can be derived but will require improved predictions of ocean heat delivery.