Timing of Childbirth, Capital Accumulation, and Economic Welfare
Timing of Childbirth, Capital Accumulation, and Economic Welfare
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生育时间、资本积累和经济福利
DOI：
10.1093/oep/gps027
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Ryo Horii
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Akira Momota;Ryo Horii
本文在一个简单的重叠代模型中考察了生育时间对资本积累和福利的影响，其中每个代理人生活四期，工作两期。我们表明，推迟生育不仅减少了人口，而且还造成了劳动力中工人年龄构成的波动。这导致总储蓄率波动，从而导致资本劳动比率的周期。当所有代理人都推迟生育时，我们分析表明，尽管人口减少，但从长期来看，所有代理人的资本劳动比率和福利都会下降。当一小部分代理人推迟生育时，根据他们在人口周期中的位置，它会对代理人产生不同的福利影响。低终身生育率和技术进步的影响也进行了研究。
This paper examines the effect of the timing of childbirth on capital accumulation and welfare in a simple overlapping generations model, where each agent lives for four periods and works for two periods. We show that delayed childbearing not only reduces population, but also generates fluctuations in the age composition of workers in the labour force. This causes the aggregate saving rate to fluctuate, which leads to cycles in the capital–labour ratio. When all agents delay childbearing, we analytically show that both the capital–labour ratio and the welfare of all agents can fall in the long run, despite the population decline. When a fraction of agents delay childbearing, it has differential welfare effects on agents depending on their positions in the demographic cycles. The effects of lower lifetime fertility and technological progress are also examined.