The Role of Unpredictability in Maintaining Control of the Security Forces in the Gambia
The Role of Unpredictability in Maintaining Control of the Security Forces in the Gambia
复制标题
不可预测性在维持冈比亚安全部队控制方面的作用
DOI：
10.1093/afraf/adad002
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Dwyer M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dwyer M
这项研究探讨了专制领导人的一个经典困境——需要一支强大的安全力量来阻止反对派，同时又担心强大的力量可能带来的威胁。通过对贾梅总统（1994-2017）执政时期冈比亚安全部门的独特视角，该书认为，营造不确定性是维持对武装部队控制的关键工具。它将这种方法置于更广泛的制度随意性理论的背景下。该研究展示了不可预测性是如何通过针对军事生活的结构层面和常规方面的多重重叠实践来运作的。它还将国际机会视为减轻部队中普遍存在的不确定性的一些负面影响的途径。该研究利用2017年冈比亚民主政治转型后新获得的数据，为国家安全部队的内部动态提供了新的见解。这包括对部队成员的采访、真相、和解与赔偿委员会（TRRC）的证词、军事法庭记录和其他政府报告。
This research explores a classic predicament of authoritarian leaders—the need for a strong security force to deter opposition alongside a fear of the threats that a strong force could pose. By providing a unique view into the security services in The Gambia under President Jammeh (1994–2017), it argues that fostering uncertainty was the key tool in maintaining control of the armed forces. It situates this approach in the context of wider theories of institutional arbitrariness. The research demonstrates how unpredictability was operationalized through multiple, overlapping practices targeting both the structural level and routine aspects of military life. It also looks at international opportunities as an avenue to mitigate some of the negative effects of pervasive uncertainty in the forces. The research provides new insights into the internal dynamics of state security forces by drawing on data newly available after The Gambia’s democratic political transition of 2017. This includes interviews with members of the forces, testimonies from the Truth, Reconciliation, and Reparation Commission (TRRC), court martial transcripts, and other government reports.