Choosing the future of Antarctica
Choosing the future of Antarctica
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DOI：
10.1038/s41586-018-0173-4
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发表时间：
2018-06
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
S. Rintoul;S. Rintoul;S. Chown;R. DeConto;M. England;H. Fricker;V. Masson‐Delmotte;T. Naish;M. Siegert;J. Xavier;J. Xavier
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文献类型：
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作者：
S. Rintoul;S. Rintoul;S. Chown;R. DeConto;M. England;H. Fricker;V. Masson‐Delmotte;T. Naish;M. Siegert;J. Xavier;J. Xavier
我们从一个观察者的角度回顾2070年，对南极洲和南大洋的未来进行了两个叙述。在第一种情况下，温室气体排放仍然不受控制，气候继续变暖，政策反应无效；这对南极洲和南大洋产生了重大影响，对世界产生了影响。在第二种情况下，采取了雄心勃勃的行动，限制温室气体排放，并制定政策，减少对环境的人为压力，减缓南极洲的变化速度。未来十年所做的选择将决定实现什么轨道。
We present two narratives on the future of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, from the perspective of an observer looking back from 2070. In the first scenario, greenhouse gas emissions remained unchecked, the climate continued to warm, and the policy response was ineffective; this had large ramifications in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, with worldwide impacts. In the second scenario, ambitious action was taken to limit greenhouse gas emissions and to establish policies that reduced anthropogenic pressure on the environment, slowing the rate of change in Antarctica. Choices made in the next decade will determine what trajectory is realized.