Decision Science Meets National Security: A Personal Perspective
Decision Science Meets National Security: A Personal Perspective
复制标题
DOI：
10.1177/1745691618815822
复制
发表时间：
2019-01
影响因子：
12.6
通讯作者：
J. Lerner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Lerner
我知道我站在巨人的肩膀上，分享我的故事。许多判断和决策研究人员也专门与政府机构合作，研究广义的人类安全问题。仅举几个例子，巴鲁克·菲施霍夫、丹尼·卡尼曼、埃尔克·韦伯、保罗·斯洛维奇、埃伦·彼得斯、埃里克·约翰逊、克雷格·福克斯、巴布·梅勒斯、菲尔·泰特洛克、凯里·莫尔韦奇以及其他无疑都曾与联邦政府机构就影响人类安全的事项进行过合作。也就是说，这是决策科学（也称为JDM）领域特别令人兴奋的时刻。公众越来越认识到，为了在医学、金融和国家安全等领域蓬勃发展，我们需要做出明智的决策，而决策科学作为一个领域，可以帮助我们做到这一点。CNO是最高级的军事（即，非文职）海军军官;他是参谋长联席会议成员，也是国家安全理事会、国土安全理事会、国防部长和美国总统的军事顾问。我们的通话集中在我可能增加参与的方式上，为海军领导层提供建议。几个星期后，当我写这份文件的最后修订版时，我接受了一项在五角大楼工作一年的任务。具体来说，我是海军的第一位首席决策科学家，也是海军作战部长的特别顾问。通过一项名为《政府间人事法》的有用法律，联邦政府的组织可以在规定的时间范围内“买断”教员的部分（或全部）时间。就我而言，我保留了我在哈佛的职位，但把大约一半的时间花在了海军上。2我的工作描述包括这样的目标，即在海军内部增加基于证据的决策的使用，并增加实验的使用（即，科学方法），以提高组织的学习和运作效率。这个职位的一小部分具体目标需要保密，至少目前是这样。读者可能想知道这一切是如何发生的。在五角大楼或国家安全部门工作并不是我为自己设定的具体目标。相反，在我职业生涯的每一个阶段，我只是对改善人类判断和决策的机会感到兴奋，特别是为共同利益做出的决定。此外，我倾向于决策领域的特点是小的误差和高风险，如在健康/医学，金融，特别是国家安全-三个领域，我集中了我的应用努力。虽然看起来很老套，但我从约翰·F·肯尼迪那里得到了灵感。肯尼迪的就职演说，这也恰好是哈佛肯尼迪学院的座右铭：“不要问你的国家能为你做什么，问问你能为你的国家做什么。”我是在一个爱国的、自由主义的家庭里长大的，自然地形成了这种信念。我的父母深信民主创造机会平等的力量，他们自己也亲身经历过。作为移民的孩子，他们自己在远离压迫政权的一代人的环境中长大。大约在我学会阅读的时候，我的父母让我为他们的候选人和事业做传单。在我看来，带着剪贴板和请愿书在我的社区里走动是正常的，帮助我的父母为几乎每晚的委员会会议做准备是正常的，当我还在高中的时候，我在民主党众议员巴尼·弗兰克的办公室里担任美国国会实习生是正常的。815822 PPSXXX10.1177/1745691618815822 LernerDecision Science Meets National Security research-article2018
I share my story knowing that I stand on the shoulders of giants. Many researchers of judgment and decision making ( JDM) have also worked in a dedicated way with government agencies on problems of human security, broadly defined. To name but a few, Baruch Fischhoff, Danny Kahneman, Elke Weber, Paul Slovic, Ellen Peters, Eric Johnson, Craig Fox, Barb Mellers, Phil Tetlock, Carey Morewedge, and undoubtedly others have all worked with federal government agencies on matters that affect human security. That said, it is an especially exciting time in the field of decision science (otherwise known as JDM). The general public is increasingly recognizing that, in order to thrive in such areas as medicine, finance, and national security, we need to make smart decisions—and that decision science, as a field, can help us do just that.1 Coincidentally, the day I began writing this, I had just finished a video call with the U.S. Chief of Naval Operations (CNO). The CNO is the most senior military (i.e., noncivilian) officer in the Navy; he serves as a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and is a military adviser to the National Security Council, the Homeland Security Council, the Secretary of Defense, and the U.S. President. Our call focused on ways I might increase my involvement advising Navy leadership. Many weeks later, as I write the final revision of this document, I have accepted a 1-year assignment within the Pentagon. Specifically, I serve as the Navy’s first Chief Decision Scientist and as Special Advisor to the Chief of Naval Operations. Through a useful law known as the Intergovernmental Personnel Act, organizations in the federal government can, among other possibilities, “buy out” a portion (or all) of a faculty member’s time for a specified time frame. In my case, I retain my position at Harvard but devote approximately half of my time to the Navy.2 My job description includes such objectives as increasing the use of evidence-based decision making within the Navy and increasing the use of experimentation (i.e., scientific method) to increase organizational learning and operational effectiveness. A smaller set of specific objectives in this position needs to remain undisclosed, at least for now. Readers may wonder how all this came about. Working at the Pentagon or in national security was not a specific goal I set for myself. Rather, at each stage of my career, I have merely been excited by opportunities to improve human judgment and decision making, especially decisions made for the common good. Moreover, I have gravitated toward decision domains characterized by small margins for error and high stakes, such as in health/medicine, finance, and especially national security—three areas in which I have concentrated my applied efforts. Corny though it may seem, I draw inspiration from John F. Kennedy’s inaugural address, which also happens to be the motto for the Harvard Kennedy School: “Ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country.” I came by this conviction naturally, growing up in a patriotic, liberal-activist household. My parents believed deeply in—and experienced for themselves—the power of democracy to create equality of opportunity. The children of immigrants, they themselves grew up one generation away from living under oppressive regimes. About the time I learned to read, my parents put me to work leafletting for their candidates and causes. It seemed normal to me to carry a clipboard and petitions around my neighborhood, normal to help my parents set up for near-nightly committee meetings, and normal for me to serve as a U.S. congressional intern in Democratic Representative Barney Frank’s office while I was still in high school. 815822 PPSXXX10.1177/1745691618815822LernerDecision Science Meets National Security research-article2018