Structural forecasting of species persistence under changing environments
Structural forecasting of species persistence under changing environments
复制标题
变化环境下物种持久性的结构预测
DOI：
10.1111/ele.13582
复制
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Boettiger, ed., Carl
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Saavedra, Serguei;Medeiros, Lucas P.;AlAdwani, Mohammad;Boettiger, ed., Carl
一个物种在特定地方的持久性不仅取决于其消耗资源和将资源转化为后代的内在能力，而且还取决于不断变化的环境条件如何影响其生长速度。然而，因素的复杂性通常使我们在理解和预测物种的持久性之间做出选择。为了解决这个问题，我们提出了一个概率方法植根于统计概念的合奏理论应用于统计力学和数学概念的结构稳定性应用于人口动态模型-我们称之为结构预测。我们展示了这种新方法如何使我们能够估计当地社区中单个物种的持久性概率;理解和解释这种概率的条件下，我们有关于一个系统的信息;并提供物种持久性的样本外预测，而不需要大量的数据。
The persistence of a species in a given place not only depends on its intrinsic capacity to consume and transform resources into offspring, but also on how changing environmental conditions affect its growth rate. However, the complexity of factors has typically taken us to choose between understanding and predicting the persistence of species. To tackle this limitation, we propose a probabilistic approach rooted on the statistical concepts of ensemble theory applied to statistical mechanics and on the mathematical concepts of structural stability applied to population dynamics models – what we callstructural forecasting. We show how this new approach allows us to estimate a probability of persistence for single species in local communities; to understand and interpret this probability conditional on the information we have concerning a system; and to provide out‐of‐sample predictions of species persistence as good as the best experimental approaches without the need of extensive amounts of data.