Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications
Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-015-1432-0
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发表时间：
2015-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Allen, Myles R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Otto, Friederike E. L.;Boyd, Emily;Allen, Myles R.
极端天气事件是造成生命和生计损失的一个重要原因，特别是在非洲脆弱国家和社区。此类事件或其发生概率可能或正在因气候变化而发生变化，从而导致相关风险发生变化。为了适应或应对这种不断变化的风险造成的损失和损害，我们需要了解气候变化对极端天气事件及其影响的影响。概率事件归因的新兴科学可以提供关于人为气候变化对极端事件风险变化的贡献的科学证据。这项研究有可能有助于适应气候变化，但有必要探讨其在脆弱的发展中国家，特别是非洲发展中国家的应用，因为大多数现有的事件归因研究都侧重于中纬度事件。在这里，我们解释的方法，和影响，不同的方法来归因于极端天气事件在非洲的背景下。分析表明，不同的归因问题框架的方式可能会导致非常不同的风险变化的评估。至关重要的是，定义最合适的归因问题不是一个科学决策，而是需要与那些将使用答案的利益相关者进行对话。所有归因研究都是如此，但在热带环境中可能特别相关，这表明科学家和决策者之间的合作是非洲的优先事项。
Extreme weather events are a significant cause of loss of life and livelihoods, particularly in vulnerable countries and communities in Africa. Such events or their probability of occurring may be, or are, changing due to climate change with consequent changes in the associated risks. To adapt to, or to address loss and damage from, this changing risk we need to understand the effects of climate change on extreme weather events and their impacts. The emerging science of probabilistic event attribution can provide scientific evidence about the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to changes in risk of extreme events. This research has the potential to be useful for climate change adaptation, but there is a need to explore its application in vulnerable developing countries, particularly those in Africa, since the majority of existing event attribution studies have focused on mid-latitude events. Here we explain the methods of, and implications of, different approaches to attributing extreme weather events in an African context. The analysis demonstrates that different ways of framing attribution questions can lead to very different assessments of change in risk. Crucially, defining the most appropriate attribution question to ask is not a science decision but one that needs to be made in dialogue with those stakeholders who will use the answers. This is true of all attribution studies but may be particularly relevant in a tropical context, suggesting that collaboration between scientists and policy-makers is a priority for Africa.