Investigating transmission in a two-wave epidemic of Chikungunya fever, Reunion Island
Investigating transmission in a two-wave epidemic of Chikungunya fever, Reunion Island
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DOI：
10.1089/vbz.2006.0620
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发表时间：
2008-04-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Flahault, A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boelle, P. -Y.;Thomas, G.;Flahault, A.
2005-2006年，基孔肯雅热（一种由蚊子传播的病毒性疾病）的流行病席卷了留尼汪岛（人口78万）。第一波（2005年3月至6月）有3000例，第二波（2005年12月至2006年4月）有25万多例。我们将新开发的流行病学工具应用于病媒传播疾病，结果表明，尽管在数量上存在巨大差异，但通过每个指示病例的继发病例数衡量的传播潜力（或繁殖数量），在两个连续的波中保持相似：初始繁殖数R-0的最佳估计值为3.7，可能的范围为2至11，取决于蚊子的孵化时间和寿命。我们的结论是，两个季节之间的毒力增加是没有必要解释的变化，流行病的规模，并在没有干预的情况下，基孔肯雅热流行病的发病率可能远远超过50%。
An epidemic of Chikungunya fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, spectacularly swept through Reunion Island (population 780,000) in 2005-2006. There were 3000 cases in a first wave (March-June 2005) and more than 250,000 cases in a second (December 2005-April 2006). Adapting newly developed epidemiological tools to vector-borne diseases, we show that despite this massive difference in magnitude, the transmission potential as measured by the number of secondary cases per index case (or reproduction number), remained similar during the two consecutive waves: The best estimate for the initial reproduction number R-0 was 3.7, with a possible range from 2 to 11 depending on incubation duration and lifespan of the mosquito. We conclude that an increase in virulence between the two seasons was not necessary to explain the change in magnitude of the epidemics, and that the attack rate may be well over 50% in Chikungunya fever epidemics in the absence of intervention.