The World Bank Macro-Fiscal Model Technical Description
The World Bank Macro-Fiscal Model Technical Description
复制标题
世界银行宏观财政模型技术说明
DOI：
10.1596/1813-9450-8965
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Bui
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Andrew Burns;B. Campagne;Charl Jooste;D. Stephan;T. Bui
本文概述了世界银行宏观经济和财政模型（MFMod）的结构和经济基础。MFMod由181个国家的单个国家模型组成。世界银行宏观经济、贸易和投资全球实践中的国家经济学家使用这些模型（i）生成国家预测和（ii）模拟各种政策。每个模型都有类似的结构和功能形式，不同之处反映了数据的可得性和经济专业化（特别是石油出口国）。虽然函数形式相似，但参数因国家而异，并在国家一级进行估计。各国的预测是实时关联的，每个国家的出口市场增长是根据每个贸易伙伴的进口贸易加权平均值计算的。各国之间的汇款流入和流出通过类似的机制实现平衡。其他跨国联系是通过真实的有效汇率和进出口价格来实现的，这些价格是世界商品价格和当地成本考虑的函数。
This paper outlines the structure and economic foundation of the World Bank's macroeconomic and fiscal model (MFMod). MFMod consists of individual country models for 181 countries. The models are used by country economists within the World Bank's Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice to (i) generate country forecasts and (ii) simulate various policies. Each model has a similar structure and functional form, with variation reflecting data availability and economic specialization (notably for oil exporters). Although the functional forms are similar, the parameters are country specific and estimated at the country level. Forecasts across countries are live-linked, with the export market growth of each country calculated as a trade-weighted average of imports of each of its trading partners. Remittance inflows and outflows are balanced across countries through a similar mechanism. Other cross-country linkages come through the real effective exchange rate and export and import prices, which are a function of world commodity prices and local cost considerations.