Time Series Analysis of Land Cover Change in Dry Mountains: Insights from the Tajik Pamirs
Time Series Analysis of Land Cover Change in Dry Mountains: Insights from the Tajik Pamirs
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DOI：
10.3390/rs13193951
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发表时间：
2021-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Vanselow;Harald Zandler;C. Samimi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Vanselow;Harald Zandler;C. Samimi
近几十年来，世界上许多地区都观察到了植被变绿和变黄的趋势。然而，很少有研究关注干燥的山脉。在这里，我们分析了塔吉克斯坦帕米尔高原西部的土地覆盖变化趋势。我们的目标是更深入地了解这些变化，从而改善干旱山区的遥感研究。研究区域的特点是一组复杂的属性，使其成为这一目的的主要例子。我们使用广义加性混合模型对修正的土壤调整植被指数、植被数据以及环境和社会人口数据的32年Landsat时间序列(1988-2020年)进行趋势估计。通过这种方法，我们能够应对干旱和山区遥感分析中出现的典型挑战，包括背景噪声和不规则数据。我们发现，绿色化和褐变化趋势是并存的，而且它们随着土地覆盖类别、地形和地理分布的不同而不同。绿色化主要出现在农业和林业领域，表明变化的直接人为驱动因素。在其他地点，绿化与气温上升很好地对应。勃朗宁经常与灾难性的事件联系在一起，而这些事件是由于气温上升而加剧的。
Greening and browning trends in vegetation have been observed in many regions of the world in recent decades. However, few studies focused on dry mountains. Here, we analyze trends of land cover change in the Western Pamirs, Tajikistan. We aim to gain a deeper understanding of these changes and thus improve remote sensing studies in dry mountainous areas. The study area is characterized by a complex set of attributes, making it a prime example for this purpose. We used generalized additive mixed models for the trend estimation of a 32-year Landsat time series (1988–2020) of the modified soil adjusted vegetation index, vegetation data, and environmental and socio-demographic data. With this approach, we were able to cope with the typical challenges that occur in the remote sensing analysis of dry and mountainous areas, including background noise and irregular data. We found that greening and browning trends coexist and that they vary according to the land cover class, topography, and geographical distribution. Greening was detected predominantly in agricultural and forestry areas, indicating direct anthropogenic drivers of change. At other sites, greening corresponds well with increasing temperature. Browning was frequently linked to disastrous events, which are promoted by increasing temperatures.