Preoperative predicting score of lymph node metastasis for gastric cancer
Preoperative predicting score of lymph node metastasis for gastric cancer
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s13277-014-2363-5
复制
发表时间：
2014-07
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Yanjun Zhang;Zhi Zhu;Zhe Sun;Zhen-ning Wang;Xinyu Zheng;Huimian Xu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yanjun Zhang;Zhi Zhu;Zhe Sun;Zhen-ning Wang;Xinyu Zheng;Huimian Xu
本研究的目的是建立一种新的评分系统来预测胃癌淋巴结转移的可能性。我们研究了中国医科大学第一医院肿瘤外科收治的932例胃癌患者的临床病理变量。进行Logistic分析以确定预测因素。从逻辑回归获得的变量的危险风险（HR）用于构建一个简单的评分系统，该系统由每个选定变量的积分总和确定。建立受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）分析特异性。932例患者中644例（69.1%）发现淋巴结转移。多因素Logistic回归分析后，选择肿瘤大小、浸润深度和大体类型（P< 0.001）作为可行的预测因子，建立评分系统。绘制ROC曲线以验证预测评分和其他变量对两种淋巴结分期（N分期）预测的准确性。结果表明，该预测评分系统具有较好的特异性和敏感性（分别为65.71%和83.54%）。目前的研究表明，术前预测系统，以确定淋巴结转移的风险是可行的。该模型可能有助于术前咨询系统淋巴结清扫术的成本和效益。
The aim of our study was to develop a new score system that might predict the probability of lymph node of gastric carcinoma. We studied the clinicopathological variables of 932 patients with gastric carcinoma admitted to the Department of Surgical Oncology at the First Hospital of China Medical University. Logistic analysis was performed to identify predictors. The hazard risk (HR) of variables obtained from logistic regression was used to construct a simple scoring system determined by an aggregate of the points assigned for each selected variable. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was created to analyze the specificity. Lymph node metastases were found in 644 (69.1 %) of 932 patients. After multivariate logistic regression analysis, tumor size, depth of invasion, and macroscopic types (P< 0.001) were selected as viable predictors to establish the scoring system. ROC curves were plotted to verify the accuracy of predicting score and other variables for both Lymph node stage (N stage) prediction. It showed that the predicting score system had a better specificity and sensitivity (65.71 % and 83.54 %, respectively). The current study suggests that a preoperative prediction system to identify the risk of lymph node metastasis is feasible. This model may be useful in preoperative counseling about the cost and benefit of systemic lymph node dissection.