Valuation of R&D investment under technological, market, and rival preemption uncertainty
Valuation of R&D investment under technological, market, and rival preemption uncertainty
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DOI：
10.1002/mde.2896
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发表时间：
2018-03
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
M. Nishihara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Nishihara
我们开发了一个真实的期权模型来评估和优化一个研究与开发（R&D）项目。该模型捕捉了R&D的关键特征，包括研究持续时间，增长机会，债务融资，技术，需求市场和竞争对手抢占的不确定性。在该模型中，我们揭示了关键的R&D功能的相互作用。存续期对投资的影响取决于是否存在竞争对手的优先购买。研究持续时间的更高不确定性加速了竞争对手抢占的投资。技术成功的更高不确定性，加上增长机会，加速了投资。债务融资大大缩短了第一阶段项目与成长项目之间的时滞。
We develop a real options model for evaluating and optimizing a research and development (R&D) project. The model captures key features of R&D, including research duration, growth opportunity, debt financing, and uncertainty of technology, demand market, and rival preemption. In the model, we unveil the interactions of key R&D features. The effect of duration on investment depends on whether there is rival preemption. Higher uncertainty of research duration speeds up investment in the presence of rival preemption. Higher uncertainty of technological success, combined with a growth opportunity, accelerates investment. Debt financing greatly decreases time lag between the first stage project and growth project.