Options for Achieving a 50% Cut in Industrial Carbon Emissions by 2050
Options for Achieving a 50% Cut in Industrial Carbon Emissions by 2050
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DOI：
10.1021/es902909k
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发表时间：
2010-03-15
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Milford, Rachel L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Allwood, Julian M.;Cullen, Jonathan M.;Milford, Rachel L.
工业的碳排放主要是钢铁、水泥、塑料、纸张和铝等商品的生产。预计到2050年，对这些材料的需求将至少翻一番，届时全球碳排放必须至少减少50%。为了评估实现这一目标的挑战，这些材料的全球流动及其相关排放预计在五种技术情景下到2050年。参考情景包括所有现有的和正在出现的效率措施，但不能提供足够的削减。碳固存在初级生产中的应用证明仅对水泥就足够了。排放目标总是可以通过减少需求来实现，例如通过延长产品寿命、材料替代或“轻量化”。重复使用部件显示出巨大的潜力，特别是在建筑领域。彻底的工艺创新也是可能的。结果表明，前两种战略以增加初级生产为基础，不能实现所需的减排，因此应在大力追求物质效率的同时，允许在减少初级生产的情况下提供更多的物质服务。
Carbon emissions from industry are dominated by production of goods in steel, cement plastic, paper, and aluminum. Demand for these materials is anticipated to double at least by 2050, by which time global carbon emissions must be reduced by at least 50%. To evaluate the challenge of meeting this target, the global flows of these materials and their associated emissions are projected to 2050 under five technical scenarios. A reference scenario includes all existing and emerging efficiency measures but cannot provide sufficient reduction. The application of carbon sequestration to primary production proves to be sufficient only for cement The emissions target can always be met by reducing demand, for instance through product life extension, material substitution, or "light-weighting". Reusing components shows significant potential particularly within construction. Radical process innovation may also be possible. The results show that the first two strategies, based on increasing primary production, cannot achieve the required emissions reductions, so should be balanced by the vigorous pursuit of material efficiency to allow provision of increased material services with reduced primary production.