Elevational shifts in thermal suitability for mountain pine beetle population growth in a changing climate
Elevational shifts in thermal suitability for mountain pine beetle population growth in a changing climate
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在不断变化的气候中，山区松树甲虫种群增长的热适宜性的高程变化
DOI：
10.1093/forestry/cpv054
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发表时间：
2016-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Powell, James A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bentz, Barbara J.;Duncan, Jacob P.;Powell, James A.
未来的森林正受到气候变化和干扰的影响。气候变化正在导致全球范围内大规模的森林减少，以及许多树种的分布变化。由于环境因素决定了昆虫的季节性和种群成功率，气候变化也影响了杀死树木的树皮甲虫。美国西部松大小蠹（Dendroctonus ponderosae）是美国西部松林的主要害虫。我们使用由缩小的每日温度数据驱动的基于物候学的机械人口模型，描述了地形复杂地区山地松甲虫种群增长的最近和未来的空间和时间热适宜性。全球气候模型之间的模型预测的增长率的趋势是相似的，并表明，相对于未来的趋势，在过去的60年中，山松甲虫的人口增长是最佳的中海拔和最低和最高海拔最不理想。这一趋势与1997年至2013年期间观察到的山松甲虫引起的树木死亡率最高的中海拔地区一致，据航空探测调查估计。然而，最佳的物候同步的热适宜性，预计转移在最近几年，到世纪末，最好的热栖息地山松甲虫将在最低和最高海拔。机械人口模型是有价值的工具，模拟未来的热制度，可能是有益的和适应不良的山松甲虫人口增长和随后的树木死亡率。
Future forests are being shaped by changing climate and disturbances. Climate change is causing Large-scale forest declines globally, in addition to distributional shifts of many tree species. Because environmental cues dictate insect seasonality and population success, climate change is also influencing tree-killing bark beetles. The mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae, is a major disturbance in Pinus forests of the western US. Using a mechanistic, phenology-based demographic model driven by downscaled daily temperature data, we describe recent and future spatial and temporal thermal suitability for mountain pine beetle population growth in a topographically complex region. Trends in model-predicted growth rates among Global Climate Models were similar and suggest that, relative to future trends, mountain pine beetle population growth within the past 60 years was most optimal at middle elevations and Least optimal at the Lowest and highest elevations. This trend aligns with observed mountain pine beetle-caused tree mortality that was greatest at middle elevations between 1997 and 2013, as estimated from Aerial Detection Surveys. However, thermal suitability for optimal phenological synchrony was predicted to shift in recent years, and by the end of the century, the best thermal habitats for mountain pine beetle will be at the Lowest and highest elevations. Mechanistic demographic models are valuable tools for modelling future thermal regimes that may be both beneficial and maladaptive for mountain pine beetle population growth and subsequent tree mortality.