Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China's passenger vehicle fleet
Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China's passenger vehicle fleet
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2011.09.014
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发表时间：
2011-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Ouyang, Minggao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hao, Han;Wang, Hewu;Ouyang, Minggao
乘用车是中国汽油的主要消费者。我们建立了一个自下而上的模型，重点是模拟中国乘用车的能源消耗和温室气体（GHG）排放量的增长。对限制车辆登记、减少车辆出行、加强燃料消耗率限制、车辆小型化和促进电动汽车普及等五项措施的燃料节约和温室气体减排效果进行了评估。基于这些措施的组合，分析了中国乘用车车队的燃料节约和温室气体减排情景。在不采取任何措施的参考情景下，燃料消耗和生命周期温室气体排放将在2050年达到5.2亿吨油当量和21.5亿吨，约为2010年水平的8.1倍。然而，通过实施这些措施，可以大大节省燃料。通过同时实施所有五项措施，燃料消耗量将在2030年达到1.38亿吨油当量，并在2050年降至1.26亿吨油当量，仅为参考情景下消耗量的371%和24.3%。在温室气体缓解方面也有类似的潜力。研究结果和情景分析为中国政府的政策制定提供了参考。(C)2011爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有，
Passenger vehicles are the main consumers of gasoline in China. We established a bottom-up model which focuses on the simulation of energy consumptions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth by China's passenger vehicle fleet. The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation effects of five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, strengthening fuel consumption rate (FCR) limits, vehicle downsizing and promoting electric vehicle (EV) penetration were evaluated. Based on the combination of these measures, the fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China's passenger vehicle fleet were analyzed. Under reference scenario with no measures implemented, the fuel consumptions and life cycle GHG emissions will reach 520 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 2.15 billion tons in 2050, about 8.1 times the level in 2010. However, substantial fuel conservation can be achieved by implementing the measures. By implementing all five measures together, the fuel consumption will reach 138 Mtoe in 2030 and decrease to 126 Mtoe in 2050, which is only 371% and 24.3% of the consumption under reference scenario. Similar potential lies in GHG mitigation. The results and scenarios provided references for the Chinese government's policy-making. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved,