Reef-coral refugia in a rapidly changing ocean
Reef-coral refugia in a rapidly changing ocean
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.12851
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发表时间：
2015-06-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
van Woesik, Robert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cacciapaglia, Chris;van Woesik, Robert
这项研究旨在确定气候变化的热应力避难所的珊瑚礁在印度洋和太平洋。一个物种分布模型的方法被用来确定避难所的12种珊瑚，不同的地方热应力的反应。我们假设，珊瑚物种的热应力的本地响应可能类似地反映为对气候变化的区域响应。我们评估了每个物种的当代地理范围，并使用k倍算法随机选择训练和评估地点来确定它们的温度和辐照度偏好。这些信息被应用于全球气候模型的缩小尺度输出，以预测到2100年每个物种可能存在的地方。我们的模型在有和没有1摄氏度的能力下运行，以适应不断上升的海洋温度。结果显示，珊瑚物种目前占据的生境面积与预测到2100年将占据的生境面积之间存在正指数关系。然而，各反应尺度之间存在相当大的脱钩，随着海洋进一步变暖，一些在局部尺度上的赢家可能会成为区域尺度上的输家。我们预测，12个物种中的9个将失去24-50%的现有栖息地。预计大部分减少发生在两个半球的纬度5-15度之间。然而，当我们模拟1摄氏度的适应能力时，两个普遍存在的物种，Acropora hyacinthus和Acropora digitifera，预计将保留它们目前的栖息地。相比之下，耐热的滨珊瑚预计将增加其目前的分布14%，特别是向南沿着澳大利亚的东海岸和西海岸。五个区域被确定为印度洋珊瑚礁保护区，七个区域被确定为太平洋珊瑚礁保护区。这12个珊瑚礁避难所都应该得到高度保护。
This study sought to identify climate-change thermal-stress refugia for reef corals in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. A species distribution modeling approach was used to identify refugia for 12 coral species that differed considerably in their local response to thermal stress. We hypothesized that the local response of coral species to thermal stress might be similarly reflected as a regional response to climate change. We assessed the contemporary geographic range of each species and determined their temperature and irradiance preferences using a k-fold algorithm to randomly select training and evaluation sites. That information was applied to downscaled outputs of global climate models to predict where each species is likely to exist by the year 2100. Our model was run with and without a 1 degrees C capacity to adapt to the rising ocean temperature. The results show a positive exponential relationship between the current area of habitat that coral species occupy and the predicted area of habitat that they will occupy by 2100. There was considerable decoupling between scales of response, however, and with further ocean warming some winners' at local scales will likely become losers' at regional scales. We predicted that nine of the 12 species examined will lose 24-50% of their current habitat. Most reductions are predicted to occur between the latitudes 5-15 degrees, in both hemispheres. Yet when we modeled a 1 degrees C capacity to adapt, two ubiquitous species, Acropora hyacinthus and Acropora digitifera, were predicted to retain much of their current habitat. By contrast, the thermally tolerant Porites lobata is expected to increase its current distribution by 14%, particularly southward along the east and west coasts of Australia. Five areas were identified as Indian Ocean refugia, and seven areas were identified as Pacific Ocean refugia for reef corals under climate change. All 12 of these reef-coral refugia deserve high-conservation status.