An integer programming dynamic farm-household model to evaluate the impact of agricultural policy reforms on farm investment behaviour
An integer programming dynamic farm-household model to evaluate the impact of agricultural policy reforms on farm investment behaviour
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ejor.2010.05.012
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发表时间：
2010-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Viaggi;M. Raggi;S. G. Paloma
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作者：
D. Viaggi;M. Raggi;S. G. Paloma
我们开发了一个多目标农场-家庭动态整数规划模型，以模拟不同政策和价格情景下的投资行为，特别关注共同农业政策（CAP）的脱钩。该模式通过明确考虑交易成本，考虑到各项资产的特点，包括账龄和固定性。作为一个例子，在北方意大利的耕地农业的情况下，提供了一个案例研究应用。结果强调不同的反应模式不同的农场家庭类型随着时间的推移，作为不同的机会成本的资源和初始资产禀赋的影响。总的来说，这个应用程序突出了该方法的潜力和局限性。特别是，这种方法证明是有效的，可以根据每个农户的个人特点提供各种结果，例如：（a）“不反应”的态度;（B）农业活动和资产的调整;（c）以高收入替代农业为导向的激进反应模式。这突出了这一工具作为思想和工作假设生成器的潜力。我们认为，鉴于进一步发展的CAP，能够占多个目标，动态和投资选择的工具的使用将成为欧盟农业政策的分析更加相关。
We develop a multi-objective farm-household dynamic integer programming model to simulate investment behaviour in different policy and price scenarios, with a particular focus on the decoupling of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The model takes into account the characteristics of individual assets, including ageing and fixity through the explicit consideration of transaction costs. A case study application in the context of arable farming in Northern Italy is provided as an example. The results emphasise different patterns of reaction of different farm-household types over time, as an effect of the varying opportunity costs of resources and initial asset endowments. Overall, this application highlights the potentialities and limits of the methodology. In particular, the approach proved to be effective in providing a variety of results depending on the individual features of each farm-household, such as the differences between: (a) a ‘no reaction’ attitude; (b) an adaptation of farm activity and assets; and (c) a radical reaction pattern guided by high-income alternatives to farming. This highlights the potential of this tool as a generator of ideas and working hypotheses. We argue that, in view of the further developments of the CAP, the use of instruments able to account for multiple objectives, dynamics and investment choices will become even more relevant in the analysis of EU agricultural policy.